Nearly 10 years after two scientists launched balloons into the clouds over Ukiah in the hopes that their research could one day lead to more water being stored in Lake Mendocino, local officials gathered at Coyote Valley Dam this week to celebrate the successful implementation of that weather-forecasting project into the official manual the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers uses to determine how much water to release from the reservoir.
“It is definitely time to modernize (water storage operations), and we are leading the way on that right here in Mendocino County,” said Rep Jared Huffman (D – San Rafael) to the crowd gathered near the South Boat Ramp on Wednesday, Oct. 22, to celebrate what the USACE acknowledged was a revising of the “operating rules around flood control schedules for the first time in the dam’s 66-year history, by incorporating the principles of modern-day forecast-informed reservoir operations, or FIRO, to enhance the facility’s dual mission of flood risk management and water supply security.”
“Today represents what real collaboration looks like: Sonoma Water, the USACE, the scientists at Scripps, and local partners, have all come together with one shared goal — to make sure our water system is resilient, reliable and ready for the future,” said Second District Mendocino County Supervisor Maureen Mulheren. “For those of us who live and work in the region, we know that water doesn’t stop at county lines, (but) what happens here in Mendocino County directly impacts communities all the way through Sonoma County and beyond. When we coordinate instead of compete, everyone benefits, from our local farms and fish habitats, to the families who depend on a steady water supply.”
“As we look ahead,” Mulheren continued, “projects like FIRO and on the studies on the Coyote Valley Dam show how science, technology, and teamwork can create a stronger future for our watershed. I want to thank everyone involved for believing in this collaborative approach, which is proof that when we work across jurisdictions and focus on what unites us, we can create solutions that will last for generations.”
“It is not always politically advantageous in Mendocino County to focus on such a critical issue as Lake Mendocino (because) there are some longstanding arguments and politics behind it,” State Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Healdsburg), who was orchestrating Wednesday’s event, told Mulheren after she spoke. “And supervisor, you have stepped up every step of the way, and we want to thank you for your leadership.”
The effort to infuse more modern weather forecasting tools into the operations of Lake Mendocino was literally launched just a few miles away in March of 2016, when two student scientists released tracking balloons into the clouds above the Ukiah Municipal Airport.
“Meteorologists, hydrologists and water resource managers are very interested in knowing how much water will be delivered and where it’s going to land,” said Reuben Demirdjian, explaining at the time that he and Zhao Yang, who was studying Hydrometeorology at the University of Arizona, were collecting data as part of a research effort called FIRO, which came largely out of a partnership between the Scripps Research Institute and the Sonoma County Water Agency, which operates the lake with the Corps and Sonoma Water. While the Corps manages the “flood pool,” SCWA manages the “conservation pool,” or water storage, and also maintains minimum in-stream flows in the Russian River below the lake.
“We are focused on hydrometeorology, which combines hydrology, the study of water on the ground, with meteorology, the study of water in the air,” said Jay Jasperse, chief engineer for the SCWA at the time. “If we know where, when, and how much water is coming, we can better manage our water supply.”
“Before this update, we would inevitably be required to release water to give airspace to the dam for the next storm regardless of the upcoming weather,” Nick Malasavage, Operations & Readiness Division chief for the USACE San Francisco District, was quoted as saying in a press release issued by the Corps after Wednesday’s celebration. “FIRO allows us to be informed by the forecast and make better decisions.”
“With this update, operations will be based on the latest science instead of outdated guesswork. FIRO’s approach is leading the industry and will ensure more sustainable water supplies – something that’s more urgent than ever in our changing climate,” Huffman was quoted as saying in the release.
The release also explained that “since the Corps completed construction of Coyote Valley Dam in 1959, the water control manual has been updated just twice in its existence — once in 1986, when the city of Ukiah’s hydroelectric power plant was installed, and in 2011, in order to define minimum flow capacity required to maintain downstream aquatic habitats. But with each of these versions, the flood control schedules remained unchanged until FIRO procedures were evaluated and tested through temporary planned deviations to Lake Mendocino’s Water Control Manual.”
Leading up to the manual change, the release notes that “FIRO was demonstrated successfully at Lake Mendocino during the course of two very different water years — Water Year 2019 was a relatively wet year, while Water Year 2020 was the third driest year over a 127-year record. In both years, FIRO increased water storage and managed flood risks. In Water Year 2020, FIRO enabled a 19 percent increase in water storage, totaling more than 11,000 acre-feet. These findings were shared in a multi-agency viability assessment.”
The release further explained that “Sonoma Water is the local cost-sharing partner for Lake Mendocino and determines the amount of water released from the reservoir when levels are in the water supply pools. The lake depends on annual rainfall as well as diversions from the Potter Valley Project to fill. Lake Mendocino is a key drinking water source for approximately 650,000 people in Mendocino, Sonoma, and Marin counties. Releases from the lake are essential for meeting minimum instream flow requirements in the Russian River and providing critical habitat for threatened Chinook salmon and steelhead trout, (and that) over the past three years, FIRO has saved nearly 30,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Mendocino.”
Another achievement related to water supply was celebrated earlier this year at the lake, which Janet Pauli, a member of the Mendocino County Inland Water and Power Commission, explained was also vitally important to the region.
“I just want make sure that everybody understands how grateful we are to all of the work on this project, but then moving forward with the Army Corps of Engineers on the feasibility study for maybe even finding increased storage regionally,” Pauli said. “Because that is the key for us to move forward, facing all of the natural and regulatory issues that we confront — storage is the key.”
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