Everything you need to know about the Week 8 SEC slate, all in one place. (A bold • denotes Matt Hinton’s pick ATS.)
Game of the Week: Ole Miss at Georgia (-7.5)
The stakes: Set aside Georgia’s 5-1 record and top-10 ranking for just a second. Are the Bulldogs OK?
By local standards, they’re on an extended run of some seriously uninspiring football. And not just in 2025: Since last year’s opener, a routine, 34-3 romp over Clemson that followed the same script as dozens of identical Georgia romps before it, nearly every game vs. a Power 4 opponent has been the kind of competitive, 4-quarter battle that Kirby Smart‘s best teams would have considered beneath them. Chalk it up to the leveling effects of NIL, the portal, or simply old-fashioned “rebuilding,” but that lopsided win over the Tigers was arguably the last complete game UGA has played against a real opponent.
Let’s scroll back through the last calendar year. Down the stretch, the ’24 Dawgs needed a 4th-quarter rally to pull away from a lame-duck version of Florida employing a third-string walk-on quarterback; got waxed in eye-opening fashion at Ole Miss; survived a marathon upset bid from Georgia Tech in which they never led in regulation; went to overtime again in a narrow win over Texas in the SEC Championship Game; and were bounced decisively by Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals.
The first half of this season has been an extension of the past one. Already, Georgia has faced double-digit deficits in 3 of its first 4 SEC games, turning sluggish starts into an unsettling routine. The lone defeat, a 24-21 decision against Alabama, marked the end of a 33-game home winning streak in Athens dating to 2019. Come-from-behind wins at Tennessee and Auburn turned on a couple of crucial, essentially random moments — a missed Tennessee field goal at the end of regulation in Knoxville; a controversial goal-line fumble that prevented Auburn from extending a 10-0 lead to 17-0 just before halftime — that saved the Bulldogs’ bacon in both games. If either play goes the other way (much less both), the feeling around this team would be not just malaise, but full-blown panic.
Then again, take a breath, and here they are: 5-1, top-10 ranking, every major goal still intact, with the sport’s most talented roster and all 3 of their toughest remaining tests against Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech (undefeated Georgia Tech!) coming at home. Only a program with a recent track record as decorated as Georgia’s could imagine that scenario as some kind of slowly unfolding crisis, especially in a dog-eat-dog era defined by rising parity. A win on Saturday would put the Bulldogs back in the driver’s seat for, at minimum, an opportunity to host a first-round CFP game. A loss would be another severe blow to their margin for error in November, but not a death knell. As thin as the margins are in this conference right now, that is just life as a heavy hitter.
Relatively speaking, 6-0 Ole Miss is too blessed to be stressed ahead of its date with Georgia. This was supposed to be something like a rebuilding year in Oxford after last year’s 8-figure investment in a Playoff run went belly-up in excruciating fashion. The Rebels lost a school-record 8 NFL Draft picks, including a first-round quarterback and the entire starting defensive line, and were not nearly as conspicuous in the offseason transfer market. They started out squarely in the “whatever” range in the preseason AP poll, at No. 21. Week-by-week, though, they’ve hit their marks, riding a manageable schedule and an unlikely Heisman candidate, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, into the top 5. They have not been dominant, with 4 of their 6 wins coming by a touchdown or less; they have done everything they needed to do to put themselves in position to finish what last year’s team couldn’t.
After last year’s blowout win in Oxford, beating Georgia in itself wouldn’t necessarily represent much of a milestone. But winning a big game on the road would: Ole Miss is 1-6 under Lane Kiffin in true road games vs. top-10 opponents, the lone win coming in a 2022 trip to … uh, Kentucky? Yeah, September 2022 was a wild time. (Kentucky went on to finish that season 7-6 and unranked.) Prior to that, the Rebels’ last road win vs. a top-10 opponent was a come-from-behind upset at then-No. 10 Texas A&M in 2016. If you remember the night Shea Patterson looked like the next Johnny Manziel, you can appreciate what a feat snapping that streak would be.
More important, a win in Athens would all but clinch a Playoff spot with the friendliest remaining schedule of any SEC team on the other side. After Saturday, next week’s trip to Oklahoma is Ole Miss’ last date against a currently ranked team; the November slate (South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida, Mississippi State) is as cushy as it gets. Of course, if anybody knows better than to take anything for granted when it comes to sewing up a CFP bid, it’s the Rebels. But the opportunity is theirs for the taking.
When Ole Miss has the ball: Is Trinidad Chambliss ready for his close-up?
Chambliss, a 5th-year transfer from Division II Ferris State, arrived in Oxford almost as an afterthought, signing on as a veteran insurance policy after the Rebels’ top backup, redshirt freshman AJ Maddox, suffered a hand injury in spring practice. There was no thought whatsoever to his potentially overtaking a healthy Austin Simmons as the full-time starter. He was so obscure that, after Ole Miss fans adopted the flag of the Caribbean island nation of Trinidad and Tobago to celebrate his emergence, there seemed to be some confusion about whether Chambliss was actually from Trinidad. (He’s a native of Grand Rapids, Michigan, where Ferris State is located.)
Since he replaced a gimpy Simmons in the starting lineup in Week 3, though, there has been no confusion about who belongs at the top of the depth chart. In 4 starts — including a convincing, 24-19 win over LSU in Week 5 — Chambliss has averaged just shy of 400 total yards per game with 9 touchdowns, relegating Simmons to the Wally Pipp role in the process. Strictly as a passer, he’s tied for 4th nationally in yards per attempt and 9th in Total QBR. Factor in his mobility, and he is easily the highest-graded SEC quarterback under duress, per Pro Football Focus, boasting an 81.4 grade on pressured reps.
Just about the only box Chambliss has yet to check is the one next to handling a hostile environment on the road. He came off the bench in Ole Miss’ only road trip to date, a Week 2 win at Kentucky, to clean up after Simmons injured his ankle late in the 4th quarter. At Ferris State, the most hostile environment he faced en route to leading the Bulldogs to a D-II national title in 2024 was a sellout crowd at in-state rival Grand Valley State. (Official stadium capacity: 10,444.) No doubt that game felt big in own way. Trotting out in front of 93,000 baying for your blood in Sanford Stadium opposite a Kirby Smart defense is a slightly different experience.
When Georgia has the ball: Can Ole Miss tackle in space?
The Dawgs can still run the ball the old-fashioned way, with second-year backs Chauncey Bowens and Nate Frazier filling the role of standard-issue Georgia thumpers between the tackles. But few if any play-callers are more committed to incorporating short, safe perimeter passes as an extension of the ground game than Mike Bobo. Per PFF, nearly a full third of QB Gunner Stockton‘s total attempts this season and 45.2% of his completions have fallen behind the line of scrimmage, the largest share of any quarterback in a Power 4 conference. No other P4 passer has more attempts (54), completions (52), or yards (396) on throws behind the line.
And for good reason, because no other team has Zachariah Branch on the receiving end. The diminutive USC transfer is one of the most electric players in the country with the ball in his hand, and has quickly carved out a role as the Dawgs’ resident screen demon. For his part, Branch leads all FBS receivers in receptions (19), yards (195) and missed tackles forced (10) behind the LOS, with a couple of long touchdowns against Marshall and Tennessee that may as well be the spread-era equivalent of a toss sweep.
Branch breaks free.: ABC#GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/L8nZEaTVeL
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) September 13, 2025The conventional running game was dismal in the win over Auburn, where Georgia’s top 3 running backs combined for 53 yards on just 2.7 per carry. In fact, the most productive runner was Branch, whose 57 yards on 9 receptions (all at or behind the line) was one of the key factors in getting the offense untracked in the second half. His long gain against the Tigers covered just 13 yards, but give him a small crease or a bad angle and he can instantly make you regret it.
The verdict …
The indelible image from last year’s game in Oxford was of Georgia’s offensive line being overrun in very un-Georgia-like fashion by Ole Miss’ NFL-ready pass rush. That’s not likely to be very relevant this year: The Rebels’ only returning d-line starter from that game, Suntarine Perkins, has yet to record a sack this season as he’s rushing less and dropping into coverage more. They’ve recorded only 9 sacks as a team, a huge decline — albeit still 1 more than Georgia, which has suffered from an alarming lack of juice in the pass-rushing department. Generally, the old assumption that the Bulldogs are going to physically impose their will in a game like this is out of date.
So what is Georgia good at? Just like last year, the answer seems to change from week to week. The Dawgs are “balanced” but don’t have anything to reliably hang their hat on the way they could the o-line and defense at their best. Instead, they take their licks, then adjust to the flow of the game as it unfolds. They’re getting by. But whatever Ole Miss has left to prove at this level, UGA’s own reputation as a year-in, year-out contender is hanging by a thread. The ‘G’ on the helmet still counts for a lot, but the gap on the field is closing fast.
Prediction: Georgia 30, • Ole Miss 26
Tennessee at Alabama (-7.5)
As long as he’s upright, Alabama QB Ty Simpson is emerging as the league’s most valuable player. The challenge is keeping him that way. He got well-acquainted with the turf in Bama’s 27-24 win at Missouri, absorbing 4 sacks and more than his fair share of hits behind an unusually unsettled offensive line for this stage of the season. Only 2 starters, future pros Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford, went the distance at Mizzou, at left tackle and center, respectively. The other 3 stations all remained up for review, with the starters yielding significant snaps to reserves for the 3rd week in a row.
In fairness to the front, the running backs were also responsible for several blown protections in that game, including a whiff that led to Simpson fumbling while getting his head driven into the turf on the first play of the second half; he was down for a while after that one, and Missouri converted the short field into a tying touchdown. If anything, though, the o-line shuffle has only reinforced Bama fans’ conviction that the starting group is overdue for an update — especially at right tackle, where starter Wilkin Formby is in the crosshairs after allowing two sacks to the Tigers while splitting reps with the heir apparent, 5-star freshman Michael Carroll.
Damon Wilson is EMBARRASSING Alabama pic.twitter.com/dmCOASXr7J
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) October 11, 2025There’s no indication of a pending change on the official depth chart; until further notice, the rotation remains the status quo ahead of their annual matchup. Regardless of who lines up where, if Bama coaches are still wondering who’s a weak link, a Tennessee pass rush that leads all Power 4 defenses with 26 sacks is going to let them know in a hurry.
When not being beaten to a pulp this season, Simpson has been impeccable, recording a conference-best 92.4 PFF grade on clean drop-backs vs. a bleak 48.1 grade under pressure. (Every quarterback’s production suffers under pressure, of course, but that’s a large enough gap to be notable.) Given time, he made a couple of throws against Mizzou that belong in a gallery. On a team that can’t count on much else from one week to the next, his arm is the one reliable factor keeping the sticks moving, the defense on the sideline, and the season afloat. With every step the Tide take toward their long-term goals, the urgency of keeping him in one piece is only going to keep going up.
Prediction: • Alabama 33, Tennessee 24
LSU at Vanderbilt (-2.5)
Check out that point spread: As of mid-week, Vandy is holding firm as a 2.5-point favorite, the latest in a series of milestones a announcing the 5-1 Commodores’ arrival as a competitive outfit. Per CBS Sports, Vanderbilt hasn’t been the betting favorite against LSU since 1948, or against any ranked opponent since at least 1978, a streak spanning 176 consecutive games. (Who even knew the historical record on point spreads went back that far? Some backroom bookie preserved the line for posterity in 1948?) Anyway, the point is this is not a typical Vandy outfit content just to eke out bowl eligibility: Even coming off their Week 6 loss at Alabama, ESPN’s Football Power Index still lists the ‘Dores with a 26.9% chance to crash the Playoff – slightly behind LSU at 32.6%, but not by much – making this a de facto CFP elimination match.
If the spread is a nod of respect for Vanderbilt, it’s also a note of skepticism over LSU’s offense. The defense, a perennial sore spot since the pandemic, has risen to the occasion under 2nd-year coordinator Blake Baker, having yet to allow more than 10 points in any of its 5 wins. Meanwhile, the offense has regressed, failing top 20 points in any of its 4 games vs. Power 4 opponents, including a 24-19 loss at Ole Miss in Week 5. QB Garrett Nussmeier‘s stock has not plummeted with quite the thud of some of the other preseason headliners at the position, but if you’re looking for his name in the Heisman odds or mock drafts right now you have to scroll down to find it.
The bright spots in last week’s 20-10 win over South Carolina was the emergence of towering sophomore wideout Trey’Dez Green, who more than made up for the absence of leading receiver Aaron Anderson in the slot. Green himself had barely played since the opener due to a lingering knee injury. But he looked fully healthy against the Gamecocks, repeatedly posterizing smaller DBs to the tune of 119 yards on 14.9 per catch. Three of his 8 receptions were of the contested variety, per PFF, including his lone touchdown.
He's 6-7Ya can't guard @TreyDez_Green SEC Network pic.twitter.com/YaRZWuc9Ki
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) October 12, 2025His presence is a development. Between the 6-7 Green and the diminutive Anderson (who is expected to return in Nashville), the Tigers will have 2 very different options to exploit whatever matchups Vandy throws at them. With the full arsenal finally at his disposal, Nussmeier is overdue to go off.
Prediction: • LSU 23, Vanderbilt 19
Missouri (-1.5) at Auburn
Auburn can complain about the refs until the cows come home, and it has honest beef in its losses to Oklahoma and Georgia. At the end of the day, there’s no way around the fact that the offense stinks. After pouring money into personnel, the Tigers rank dead last in SEC play in total offense, scoring offense, yards per play, first downs, 3rd-down conversions and sacks allowed. They can’t run (or won’t), can’t throw with any kind of consistency, struggle to protect the quarterback, and as a team they average a league-worst 11.3 penalties per game. Against all odds, Jackson Arnold has been a downgrade behind center from the beleaguered Payton Thorne.
You can’t chalk all that up to “momentum.” After Arnold’s controversial goal-line fumble against Georgia, Auburn still led 10-0 in a game it had dominated to that point on both sides of the ball. ESPN’s win probability metric still showed the Tigers with a 75% chance to win. Instead, they went into the deep freeze — no pun intended — failing to threaten again as UGA rallied to score 20 unanswered points. Frustration that the vibe shifted so abruptly is understandable. But it’s not the refs’ fault the offense went three-and-out on three consecutive possessions as the Bulldogs pulled away.
Ultimately, the buck stops with Hugh Freeze, who may be facing the moment of truth barely halfway through his 3rd season on the job. He’s a Harsin-esque 5-14 vs. SEC opponents, and just 2-7 at home. (The wins in Jordan-Hare coming over Mississippi State in 2023 and Texas A&M last November, the latter in quadruple overtime.) If Freeze can survive past Saturday, the schedule eases down the stretch, setting up an opportunity to pull out of the nosedive heading into the Iron Bowl. At this point, though, that is one load-bearing if. The home crowd needs something good to happen ASAP, just to be reminded what optimism feels like.
Prediction: • Auburn 24, Missouri 20
Mississippi State at Florida (-9.5)
Every coach in big-time college football will tell you “I’m coaching for my job” any time his team takes the field. Billy Napier, however, may be literally coaching for his job. USA Today‘s Matt Hayes — a former SDS colleague — reported earlier this week that Napier’s boss, Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin, met with a group of boosters who demanded that Napier walk the plank, potentially as soon as this weekend. These would be the same boosters who were reportedly prepared to shill out to cover Napier’s buyout last year, before Stricklin convinced them to give Napier another year and pour that money into NIL efforts instead. They did, to some effect — amid an improbable November winning streak, Florida flipped incoming 4-star recruits from Oregon, Miami, USC, Penn State, Florida State, Auburn and Texas in the weeks after announcing Napier’s return, without suffering any high-profile losses via the portal. This time around, it seems they’re not interested in giving him another shot at changing their minds.
As of this writing, the only part of the initial report that anyone on Florida’s end has bothered to push back on is a line about donors threatening to withhold financial support. As far as Napier’s status is concerned, it’s not exactly a revelation that the man is toast. It’s not a matter of if, but when. Given the timing of the leak, we can assume that certain stakeholders are ready to pull the plug now, with an open date on deck, to give the locker room time to absorb the change before gearing up for a Week 10 Cocktail Party date against Georgia. Losing to a Mississippi State outfit that hasn’t won an SEC game in 2 calendar years (on Homecoming, no less) would certainly give them the excuse they need. If their minds are really made up, though, Napier’s time might be up win or lose. At this stage, what would be the point of prolonging the inevitable?
Prediction: Florida 29, • Miss. State 21
Texas A&M (-7.5) at Arkansas
Arkansas has no shortage of issues, obviously — turnover margin; the concept of defense, in general — but converting 3rd downs is not one of them. The Razorbacks are among the nation’s best on 3rd down, converting at an impressive 57.1% clip for the season; in their 2 SEC games against Ole Miss and Tennessee, they’ve converted 16-of-25 3rd downs (64%), good for the best rate of any FBS team in conference play.
But the Hogs’ success extending drives on offense pales in comparison to Texas A&M’s success in snuffing them out. In 3 conference games to date — comfortable wins over Auburn, Mississippi State and Florida, all in College Station — the defense has allowed a grand total of 2 3rd-down conversions on 33 attempts, a staggering stop rate of nearly 94%. All-time records for 3rd-down defense are not readily available; suffice to say, if the Aggies kept it up that number would be a modern record, at least. An outlier like that, starting Saturday vs. Arkansas, is almost certainly unsustainable as they embark on a season-defining, 3-game road trip over the next 4 weeks. Then again, with an outlier like that, there’s plenty of room for regression to the mean before it actually matters.
Prediction: • Texas A&M 34, Arkansas 22
Oklahoma (-5.5) at South Carolina
Compared to Billy Napier and Hugh Freeze, the short-term forecast for Brent Venables and Shane Beamer seems relatively placid. Long-term, storms are a-brewin’.
South Carolina, which opened the season boasting its highest expectations in more than a decade, is off to a 1-3 start in SEC play with looming dates against Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Clemson down the stretch. QB LaNorris Sellers‘ outsized talent has yielded to outsized frustration amid an underwhelming supporting cast. The Gamecocks rank last in the SEC in total offense, next-to-last in scoring, and just fired the offensive line coach following a debacle of an evening at LSU. (Sellers faced pressure on 65% of his drop-backs against the Tigers, per PFF, and traversed a total of over the course of the game, per the SEC Network’s Cole Cubelic.) Beamer’s name remains a fixture in speculation over the head-coaching vacancy at his alma mater, Virginia Tech.
Oklahoma is in better shape record-wise, at 5-1. Schedule-wise, last week’s 23-6 flop against Texas left the Sooners on edge. The offense’s failure to launch against the Longhorns drained all of the goodwill built up over the first month of the season – especially concerning QB John Mateer, whose rapid ascent as a Sooner is suddenly in danger of going down as a “September Heisman” punchline. Even when the arrow was pointing up, the brutal closing stretch against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Bama, Missouri and LSU was a reminder to keep expectations in check. If OU enters it coming off back-to-back losses, suddenly it’s a grim reminder that Venables is not out of the woods yet.
Prediction: Oklahoma 21, • South Carolina 17
Texas (-11.5) at Kentucky
Did Arch Manning turn a corner against Oklahoma? Or was it just that the rest of the team finally put him in position to succeed? The win over the Sooners was a true team effort, beginning with a stifling outing by the defense and ending with a special teams touchdown to put the game on ice. In between, the Longhorns got a workhorse effort from RB Quintrevion Wisner (94 yards on 22 carries) and never put Manning in a position where he felt it was up to him to Make A Play or else.
Contrast that with their Week 6 loss at Florida, which unfolded almost entirely with Texas stuck in comeback mode. In that one, the ‘Horns fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter, abandoned the run altogether, and never touched the ball on offense with a chance to take the lead. Manning launched 14 attempts of 20+ air yards, threw 2 interceptions, and was sacked 6 times behind an overwhelmed o-line. Pass protection remained an issue against Oklahoma, which generated pressure on exactly half of Manning’s 30 drop-backs; unlike in The Swamp, though, he was never forced to deviate from the conservative blueprint, attempting just 3 passes of 20+ air yards (completing all 3), taking a single sack, and committing zero turnovers.
Sure, the words “conservative blueprint” are probably not much solace to anybody who put money down on Arch to win the Hesiman back in August. But for an outfit with its back against the wall, at least now they know what the path forward looks like.
Prediction: • Texas 27, Kentucky 13
Scoreboard
Week 7 record: 7-0 straight-up | 4-3 vs. spreadSeason record: 62-11 straight-up | 29-39 vs. spread
Week 8 SEC Primer: Georgia is losing its edge. Is Ole Miss ready to make its move? Saturday Down South.
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