Well, it’s time for the Third Saturday in October… and time for the renewal of one of college football’s most important and intense rivalries. It’s Tennessee vs. Alabama on a Saturday night in Tuscaloosa.
This has often been a streaky series, with Alabama winning 11 in a row between 1971 and 1981, and 15 in a row between 2007 and 2021. Tennessee has had its time in control as well, beating the Crimson Tide 7 straight times between 1995 and 2001. Alabama leads the overall series 59-40-8. No team has beaten Tennessee more times than Alabama, and no team has beaten Alabama more times than Tennessee.
Since 1901, this border battle has featured some of the all-time greats and has given fans memories that have lasted long after they stopped putting on the pads.
In recent years this has once again become a rivalry, with Tennessee finally doing its part to make the game matter. The Vols have won 2 of the last 3 meetings with Alabama, both wins which prompted stormings of Shields-Watkins Field. But this time the game will be played Bryant-Denny Stadium, a place UT hasn’t won since 2003.
”The report of my death was an exaggeration.”
Mark Twain gave that quote to the Associated Press in 1897, but the Alabama football program could have easily released that same statement earlier this season. Some left them for dead following the Tide’s season opening 31-17 loss at Florida State. Since then Alabama has won 5 in a row, including nail bitters at Georgia and Mizzou.
Alabama is most certainly back.
There’s a parallel universe where Ty Simpson is the Vols’ QB, but the Martin, Tennessee, native chose Alabama in 2021. He bided his time and now, in his 4th year in Tuscaloosa, is flourishing in his first season as a starter. Simpson has completed 71% of his passes for 1,678 yards, 16 TDs and only 1 INT. Senior Germie Bernard has emerged as Simpson’s top option in the passing game, as Bernard leads the Tide with a team-high 28 catches, 412 receiving yards and 5 TDs. RB Jam Miller missed the first 3 games due to injury but has averaged 89 rushing yards per game in the last 3 contests.
Defensively, pass rusher LT Overton is having a very good year with 5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. LB Justin Jefferson has a team-high 41 tackles. They are ranked in the top 20 nationally in total defense (allowing 293.4 yards per game) and scoring defense (allowing 16 points per game).
Can Tennessee win this game? Absolutely. QB Joey Aguilar is a couple of wins away from Dalton Knecht 1-and-done legend status at Tennessee. Through 6 games, he has completed 65% of his passes for 1680 yards and 14 TDs while leading Tennessee to a 5-1 record. Aguilar has had a lot of help, too. Chris Brazzell II, Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews are combining for more than 230 receiving yards and 1.8 scores per game. DeSean Bishop, Star Thomas and Peyton Lewis are combining for more than 168 rushing yards and 2.3 TDs per game.
Offensively, the Vols are first in the nation in scoring at 48.2 points per game and fourth in total offense with 527.8 yards per game. Defensively? Tennessee has a lot of work to do. Against Arkansas, the Vols gave up 12 plays of at least 15 yards. Now, they might be ranked 100th in total defense (393.8 yards allowed per game), but this is an opportunistic group. The Vols are averaging 4.3 sacks per game, which puts them at the top of the FBS in that category. Joshua Josephs, Tyre West, Dominic Bailey and Caleb Herring each have at least 3 sacks and continue to create havoc up front.
In that Arkansas game, the Vols forced 4 fumbles, recovering 3 of them. All told, they’ve collected 11 turnovers this season. Tennessee’s defense is making enough plays to get by, but you wonder if that luck runs out against an Alabama team which has only turned the football over twice this season.
RELATED: Get in on the action for the Third Saturday in October with our favorite Tennessee sports betting apps. You can find a ton of great welcome offers ahead of Alabama-Tennessee.
This game is very important in the College Football Playoff chase. The winner greatly improves its chances of making the field of 12. The loser would have 2 losses, and probably no more room for error the rest of the season.
Ten straight times the Vols have traveled to Alabama, and 10 straight times they have watched rival fans lighting up cigars. These games have rarely been close. Only twice since 2005 has the Tuscaloosa meeting ended as a 1-score game. Tennessee is obviously in a much better position today than it was during the darkest times of the Nick Saban era, but winning down there is a big ask of this team… or any team. Since the start of the 2008 season, the Crimson Tide are 110-5 at home.
The Fearless Prediction needs to see Tennessee win a game down there before we pick them to win this game.
Fearless Prediction: Alabama 35, Tennessee 27
Fearless Prediction: Tennessee vs. Alabama Saturday Down South.
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