The big names may not be on the ballot on Nov. 4, but the hopes and dreams of many prominent politicians will be on the line in this year’s elections. These are the races that will cause ripples that will run through the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential elections.
First, voter approval of Proposition 50, the Election Rigging Response Act, could make a California dream a reality for congressional Democrats and create a nightmare for Republicans.
The constitutional amendment on this year’s ballot would allow the Democratic majority in the state legislature to draw a new congressional map to replace the one created five years ago by the state's non-partisan redistricting commission. The fate of the question on Nov. 4 might make or break Democrats' chances of retaking the U.S. House next year. If voters support the plan, redistricting might add five seats to the state’s Democratic delegation in the U.S. House. The party desperately needs those seats to offset Republican redistricting gains in Texas, Missouri and other red states.
A defeat would be a significant blow to Democratic hopes of winning a House majority in 2026 and to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) 2028 presidential ambitions. But the governor has wisely framed this race in a bright blue state as an urgent effort to stop President Trump’s devastating congressional agenda dead in its tracks.
In Pennsylvania, voters will decide whether to retain in their positions three Democratic judges on the state Supreme Court.
We live in a politically litigious environment, so judicial elections merit lots of attention. The U.S. Supreme Court decided a tight race for president in favor of George W. Bush in 2000. It’s possible that a state court could pick the next occupant of the White House.
Democrats currently have a 5-2 majority on the state’s high court. If at least two of three Democratic justices keep their jobs, their party will have a majority on the court for at least the next ten years, which covers the 2028 presidential race in a key battleground state and redistricting after the 2030 census.
The media and political communities haven’t focused much on this campaign, but replacement of the three judges could help Republicans in 2028 if there is a tight race for president here and then a bitter legal dispute over the winner of the state’s 19 electoral votes.
It is hard to see a Democrat winning enough electoral votes to secure the presidency in 2028 without a victory in a purple state like Pennsylvania — there is good reason for the Keystone State moniker.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is one of the many Democrats considering a bid for president in three years. The list of other Democrats who want to move from governors’ mansions to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue includes Newsom, JB Pritzker (Illinois), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) and Tim Walz (Minnesota). The nomination of a governor over a Washington, D.C. establishment hopeful gives Democrats an opportunity to reshape the party’s tattered national image.
The theme of the mayoral elections next month could be “out with the old and in with the new.” With Americans in an extremely foul mood, that could be the theme of the midterm and the presidential elections.
New York City is in the spotlight, but there are also hot municipal races in Minneapolis and Seattle that deserve attention. In all three cases, establishment candidates battle progressive insurgents, and the results could mark the temperature for incumbent congressional candidates in 12 months.
In the Big Apple, democratic socialist state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is running with the Democratic Party nomination against former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), who lost the party primary but put himself on the ballot as an independent. A progressive insurgent and grassroots activist, Katie Wilson is challenging Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell. In Minneapolis, another democratic socialist, state Sen. Omar Fateh challenges Mayor Jacob Frey.
Progressive victories in these three mayoral races would strengthen the left wing of the Democratic Party in a fight to challenge the dominance of the party center. In New York and in Minneapolis, the progressive candidates have the support of prominent members of Congress, Reps. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). AOC could herself be a presidential candidate in three years as the champion of the strong Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party.
There are also tight governor races in Virginia and New Jersey. The Democratic candidates, Abigail Spanberger in the Old Dominion and Mikie Sherrill in the Garden State are both women, veterans of the U.S. House of Representatives and centrists with national security credentials. Several Democratic governors may run for president in 2028, and wins in these races could bolster both contestants and strengthen the party’s gubernatorial base nationally. Wins in both states could also bolster the fortunes of the leading female presidential candidate, former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Sherrill and Spanberger fit their statewide constituencies ideologically, while the three progressive anti-establishment mayoral hopefuls match theirs. If both middle-of-the-road Democratic candidates for governor win and the three progressive mayoral candidates run the table this November, the competition for the next presidential nomination between the two wings of the Democratic Party will sharpen.
The next Democratic presidential nominee must bring the two factions together to win the White House. It will be difficult, but the common desire of both groups to rid the nation of the last repugnant vestiges of Trumpism will make a tough job easier.
Brad Bannon is a national Democratic strategist and CEO of Bannon Communications Research which polls for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. He hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.
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