Now that the 2025 season has come to an end (well, for us …), the Chicago Cubs have some important roster decisions to work through over the next few weeks. And arguably the biggest decision is wrapped up in the complicated web of intertwined club and player options inside Shota Imanaga’s contract.
You might recall that Imanaga signed a “four-year, $53M deal” with the Cubs back in 2024, and he did, albeit with the aforementioned unique option(s) structure. The mess of options begins right now, at the end of the 2025 season. So I’m going to try to lay out for you, as cleanly as possible, the potential scenarios. But just know in advance that it’s a mess.
And the best way to think about it is really in two waves: The 2026 scenarios and then everything that comes thereafter.
Okay, let’s try to pin this down before we discuss what I think the Cubs will do.
Shota Imanaga: The 2026 Scenarios
To be fair, there is still one shot at a totally clean outcome here. If they want, the Cubs can exercise a $57M club option (2026, 2027, and 2028), keeping Imanaga locked in for three more years, with the following salaries each season (plus a no-trade clause).
2026: $20M 2027: $20M 2028: $17MBut if they don’t want that particular deal, everything starts getting confusing.
For example, if the Cubs decline that $57M club option, Shota Imanaga can exercise a $15M player option for 2026. If he does, the next set of decisions doesn’t happen until after the 2026 season.
But if he declines that $15M player option for 2026 this offseason, the Cubs can make him a Qualifying Offer.
If he accepts the Qualifying Offer, he’ll be on the Cubs for one year at that TBD salary (~$22M). That might seem the obvious route for Imanaga rather than picking up the $15 million player option, but keep in mind, that one comes with an additional player option for 2027, and it’s at least conceivable he might prefer a guaranteed 2/$30M (with the ability to leave in the middle) over 1/$22M.
If he declines the Qualifying Offer, he’ll become a free agent right away, and the Cubs will recoup a draft pick if/when he signs elsewhere.
So for 2026 only, Shota Imanaga will either:
Scenario 1: Play on a $20M salary (club option picked up) Scenario 2: Play on a $15M salary (club option declined, player option picked up) Scenario 3: Play on Qualifying Offer salary (club option declined, player option declined, QO accepted) Scenario 4: Become a free agent (club option declined, player option declined, QO declined) (USA TODAY NETWORK)Shota Imanaga and the Cubs After 2026
If this all plays out like Scenario 2 (Cubs decline their $57M club option, Imanaga picks up his $15M player option for 2026), there is another set of possible outcomes.
First, the Cubs can (after the 2026 season) exercise a club option that keeps Imanaga in Chicago for two years and $42M (+ a no-trade clause). With the $15M he will have made in 2026, that’s the same $57M total, just with different salaries in each season.
2026: $15M 2027: $24M 2028: $18MIf, however, the Cubs decline their $42M club option (2027-2028), Imanaga has another $15M player option he can exercise for 2027. In that scenario, he’d make $15M in 2026 and $15M in 2027, before becoming a free agent ahead of the 2028 season. (That’s where the original “four-year, $53M deal” comes from – it was basically the minimum he was guaranteed, if he wanted it.)
If, after playing 2026 in Chicago on anything other than the Qualifying Offer, the Cubs decline their $42M club option for 2027 and 2028 *and* Imanaga declines his $15M player option for 2027, he’ll become a free agent after the 2026 season.
You might think, at that point, the Cubs could play the Qualifying Offer game again, but unfortunately, that’s also not too simple. Remember, the current Collective Bargaining agreement is set to expire after the 2026 season. And we don’t know what the next one will do to the Qualifying Offer arrangement or draft pick compensation for exiting free agents. Those details have changed many times before, and probably will again this time.
© Brad Rempel-Imagn ImagesSo What Do I Think Will Happen This Winter?
It’s incredibly difficult to accept that what once looked like a no-brainer of a three-year, $57M club option is suddenly a more difficult decision.
Shota Imanaga isn’t old, by any means, but I’m not convinced this Cubs front office and ownership group is all too eager to lock up (at those prices) the ages 32, 33, and 34 seasons of a soft-tossing lefty who has allowed more homers over the last two seasons than all but one pitcher in MLB (… all while Wrigley Field has been playing extremely pitcher friendly).
I mean, the Cubs did not start him in a do-or-die playoff game on regular rest. Think about that. It has to tell you something.
So as of today, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs decline their $57M club option. In that scenario, they’ll either:
(1) Save $5M on Imanaga in 2026 (if he picks up his player option), punting the long-term decision another year.
(2) Reduce his contract to a one-year, Qualifying Offer (if they both decline the options, but he accepts the qualifying offer), or…
(3) Lose him to free agency, after both options and the QO are rejected
Now, here’s the flip side: Imanaga has also demonstrated an ability to be a very good starting pitcher, and the Cubs (any team) can always – ALWAYS – use more starting pitching. There’s also no guarantee that they can get anything close to Imanaga’s upside in the range of possible salary outcomes *and* it’s not like the Cubs have a lot of long-term money on the books (that’s especially true after 2026).
Moreover, the Cubs have a lot of players coming off the books after the 2026 season, which I bring up as a reason to keep as much talent on next year’s team as possible. You’re not taking a step back next season, so is it really a good idea to lose a potential mid+ rotation starter? I wouldn’t think so.
And yet, I just keep coming back to the potential financial savings and overall flexibility gained by declining that first option. It just screams Jed Hoyer. Go that route, and the worst case scenarios – Imanaga accepts a Qualifying Offer or Imanaga becomes a free agent – may not be considered all that unpalatable.
Plus, between the crop of free agent pitchers (Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty, Zac Kallen, Merrill Kelly, Shane BIeber, etc.), the possibility for trades, and the existing in-house rotation options (Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton, Colin Rea, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jaxson Wiggins, Brandon Birdsell, etc.), it’s not like building a rotation without Shota Imanaga would be impossible.
Ultimately, I tentatively expect Shota Imanaga to be on the Cubs for at least one more season, one way or another. But the path taken to get there could be different than we initially expected.
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