“We are on the threshold of victory and today, more than ever, we count on President Trump, the people of the United States, the peoples of Latin America, and the democratic nations of the world as our principal allies to achieve Freedom and democracy,” Machado wrote on X. “I dedicate this prize to the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause.”
The Nobel Peace Prize is one of the few truly genuine missions of Trump’s second term. He is often checked out in official meetings, and seems to have left the functioning of the government to Stephen Miller, his deputy chief of staff, and Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget—who are using their power to inaugurate fascism and purge the bureaucracy. But Trump has earnestly pursued diplomacy in the Middle East while also desperately, embarrassingly campaigning for the prize.
Much of Trump’s diplomatic work suggests that he is both incompetent and a loser, however. He is fond of claiming that he has stopped seven wars and ended conflicts that had been ongoing for “decades”—like one between Azerbaijan and Armenia (which he almost always confuses with Albania). For the most part, though, Trump’s work has consisted of swooping in to help halt relatively minor escalations. The full-fledged wars that he promised to end on his first day in office on the campaign trail last year—in Ukraine and Gaza—are still very active and only recently paused, respectively. After eight months of costly dithering, he has finally begun aiding Ukraine against Russian invaders, albeit to a lesser extent than his predecessor. In Gaza, the recent truce is a positive sign—and an accomplishment that Joe Biden could not achieve, due to a combination of his own spinelessness and Benjamin Netanyahu’s eagerness to continue the conflict (and aid Trump’s reelection effort).
The fact that Machado was awarded the prize may ironically make that war more likely. She advocates for regime change in Venezuela, though she has stopped short of endorsing a U.S.-led overthrow—but she has endorsed the U.S.’s extralegal strikes in the Caribbean, claiming that they are necessitated by Maduro’s oppressive narco-terrorist government. By endorsing her project, the Nobel Committee has given it greater legitimacy. It has handed a potent argument to figures in the Trump administration, notably Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who are pushing the United States to remove Maduro from power through military force.
For these reasons, Machado might seem like an odd laureate. But in truth, looking to the past, the Nobel Peace Prize has never only been about peace. You can applaud the bombing of fishing boats and still win one—or, in the case of Henry Kissinger, you can order the secret bombing of a country not even involved in a war and still win one. Trump has blood on his hands, but that hasn’t stopped the Norwegian Nobel Committee before. So I guess there’s a glimmer of hope for Trump after all.
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