With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have moved ahead of the Baltimore Ravens and now have the best odds of winning the AFC North. The Ravens still have the fifth-best playoff odds in the AFC at 1-3, behind the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers and Steelers.
Meanwhile, in the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers are the most likely to make the playoffs, followed by the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s a small chance of any game finishing in a tie, though there hasn’t been one in the NFL since the 2022 season, when there were two.
You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
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at Los Angeles Rams 67.8%, San Francisco 49ers 32.2%
The Rams have won three straight over the 49ers for the first time since a six-game streak from 1999 to 2001. In the last game, a 12-6 Rams win, zero combined touchdowns were scored for the first time in the matchup’s history.
Sunday Predictions
Minnesota Vikings 57.7%, vs. Cleveland Browns 42.3% (in London)
Carson Wentz recorded 350 passing yards in his second game with Minnesota and now has 523 passing yards on the year. Wentz became the third Viking with 500+ passing yards through two games with the franchise, joining Kirk Cousins (669) and Case Keenum (536).
Cleveland’s defense has allowed a league-best 222.5 net yards per game and held each of its four opponents under 300 net yards, one of two teams to do so this season (Falcons).
at Baltimore Ravens 60.9%, Houston Texans 39.1%
The Ravens have not lost any of their six home games against the Texans, matching their perfect home record against the Jets (also 6-0). Baltimore joins Philadelphia as the only teams in the Super Bowl era to have a perfect home record against two different teams (minimum six games).
Miami Dolphins 51.9%, at Carolina Panthers 48.1%
Miami’s De’Von Achane ranks fifth in the NFL with 186 yards after the catch this season, behind only Bijan Robinson – 247, Christian McCaffrey – 231, Bucky Irving – 228 and DK Metcalf – 194.
Tetairoa McMillan has accounted for 34.3% of the Panthers’ total receiving yards so far. The only NFL players to account for a higher share are Puka Nacua (45.2%), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (43.7%), Garrett Wilson (43.0%), Justin Jefferson (38.2%) and Ja’Marr Chase (38.0%).
at Indianapolis Colts 71.0% Las Vegas Raiders 29.0%
Jonathan Taylor has 527 scrimmage yards, ranking fourth in the NFL (Bijan Robinson – 584, Puka Nacua – 555, Christian McCaffrey – 530). It’s the most scrimmage yards by a Colt through the team’s first four games of a season since 2001 (Edgerrin James, 567).
On Sunday, Ashton Jeanty became the only player in Raiders’ franchise history to record at least 100 rushing yards and multiple receiving touchdowns in a single game. The last NFL player to do so was Christian McCaffrey in Week 15 of the 2023 season.
at New Orleans Saints 54.2%, New York Giants 45.8%
The Giants are looking to win back-to-back games for the first time since they won three straight games from Weeks 11-14, 2023 (Week 13 bye). Only the Titans and Patriots have gone longer without winning two consecutive games.
The Saints are 0-4 for the first time since 2012 and are looking to avoid their first 0-3 home start since 1995. New Orleans is the first team to start a season 0-4 despite allowing fewer than 400 total net yards in each game since the 2019 Jets.
Dallas Cowboys 54.8%, New York Jets 45.2%
Last week was Dak Prescott’s sixth career game with at least 300 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and a 75.0 completion percentage. All other Cowboys have combined for seven such games (five by Tony Romo, one each by Troy Aikman and Craig Morton).
The Jets are 0-4 for the ninth time in team history and the fourth time this century (2003, 2019, 2020). They’re the seventh NFL team to score at least 90 points and go winless through four games, and the first since the 2020 Falcons (106 points).
at Philadelphia Eagles 64.1%, Denver Broncos 35.9%
Jalen Hurts has gone 241 consecutive attempts without throwing an interception. He surpassed Nick Foles (237) for the most consecutive attempts without an interception by an Eagle in the last 35 seasons.
The Broncos outgained the Bengals 512-159 in total net yards in Week 4. It marked Denver’s second game since the start of last season outgaining its opponent by 350 total net yards (Week 18, 2024) – all other teams have combined for one such game over the span.
at Arizona Cardinals 78.1%, Tennessee Titans 21.9%
Trey McBride ranks second in receiving yards among tight ends (234), behind only Tyler Warren – 263). McBride’s 234 receiving yards through four games are the most by a Cardinals tight end since Jay Novacek in 1988 (241).
Tony Pollard has rushed for 1,340 yards through his first 20 games with the Titans. That’s the fifth-highest total through 20 games with the team. He only trails Earl Campbell (2,019), EddieGeorge (1,759), Chris Johnson (1,696) and DeMarco Murray (1,502).
at Seattle Seahawks 61.0%, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 39.0%
Sam Darnold is averaging a league-high 12.93 yards per completion on 9.05 yards per attempt (second behind only Lamar Jackson). Both marks are career highs through the first four weeks of a season.
After a 72-yard touchdown in Week 4, Bucky Irving has 430 scrimmage yards this season. It is the fourth most by a Buccaneer through the first four games of a season and the most since Carnell Williams in 2005 (453).
Detroit Lions 69.6%, Cincinnati Bengals 30.4%
This is the third straight season the Lions have started 3-1. Detroit’s nine wins in September since 2023 are tied with the Bills and Eagles for the most in the NFL.
Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were each held under 35 receiving yards against the Broncos in Week 4. It marked the duo’s second such game this season (Week 1 versus Browns) after having two such games from 2021-24 (both in 2021).
at Los Angeles Chargers 58.2%, Washington Commanders 41.8%
The Chargers are the only team in the NFL thus far to have two players with at least three receiving touchdowns: Quentin Johnston with four and Keenan Allen with three.
Despite having its fewest passing yards since Week 16, 2023 (both 156), Washington has the second-longest active streak in the NFL of games with at least 150 passing yards and a passing touchdown (11 straight) behind Baltimore (21 straight).
Sunday Night Football Prediction
at Buffalo Bills 74.2%, New England Patriots 25.8
The Bills have won five of their last six home games against the Patriots (including the postseason), including four straight. It is Buffalo’s longest home win streak against New England since a six-game run from 1988-93.
The Bills also rank second in the NFL in offensive EVE.
Monday Night Football Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs 57.9%, Jacksonville Jaguars 42.1%
The Chiefs have won their last eight matchups against the Jaguars (including the playoffs), theirlongest active win streak against any AFC team. Prior to this win streak, Jacksonville had a 6-2 all-time record against Kansas City.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
NFL Predictions: Which Teams Are Projected to Win in Week 5? Opta Analyst.
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