But the relief expressed by national leaders at the proposals may be largely wishful thinking because it supposes that the Trump plan is more than a skeleton framework unlikely to be realised in full or even partially.
At a White House press conference standing beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said, “that if we work together, we can bring an end to the death and destruction that we’ve seen for so many years, decades, even centuries.” In practice, nothing is less likely.
Hamas, which was excluded from the negotiations for the plan, says it is now considering it “in good faith”. It will likely seek to obtain crucial details on the extent and timing of an Israel Defence Forces (IDF) withdrawal. Its chief bargaining card is the estimated 20 live and 28 dead Israeli hostages, seized during the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In return for their release, Israel would simultaneously free 250 Palestinians serving life sentences and 1,700 other Palestinians in Israeli prisons.
Palestinians in Gaza – and not just Hamas – will want assurances that Netanyahu does not simply bank the release of Israeli hostages and prevent the return of Palestinians to parts of Gaza which they have been ordered to leave by the IDF. They will suspect that not very far down the road, Netanyahu will find some excuse to end a ceasefire and resume military operations. Some 66,000 Palestinians have been killed so far during the conflict, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. A leaked Israeli military intelligence report in May estimated that only 17 per cent of fatalities belonged to Hamas and 83 per cent were civilians.
Netanyahu is under strong pressure from the US and internationally to end the war. The UK, France and many other states recognised a Palestinian state this month, though Palestinians say that this means nothing if they continue to be targeted by the IDF and Israeli settlers in Gaza and the West Bank.
square PATRICK COCKBURN Trump lives in a strange fantasy land ruled by mood swings and unhinged outbursts
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Drafted by Trump’s all-purpose diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law and first-term Middle East adviser, Jared Kushner, the peace settlement deal looks vague and amateur – and its later phases may never happen. These include the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces, Gaza’s redevelopment, and a role for the Palestinian Authority once it has reformed itself. The US would work with Arab partners to develop a security force.
Much depends on Netanyahu’s calculations about the durability of his own coalition Government, which might lose some of its most extreme messianic ethno-nationalist members. This would leave Netanyahu with the option of constructing a new coalition, which might not be too difficult, or having a general election earlier than its due date next year. The likelihood is that he would go for the first option.
Israel is both strong and fragile at the same time. For all its military dominance, much of the world regards it as a pariah or rogue state. It is ever more dependent on political, diplomatic and military backing from the US. It has received unprecedented support from Trump, but his behaviour is even more erratic and unhinged. He claims that his peace plan will usher in a century of peace in the region, but, in reality, it guarantees a future full of hatred and war.
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