It’s still early days in the new season, but goals are being scored at a remarkably low rate in the Premier League. We ask: will this surprise trend continue?
The way the last few seasons went, it looked not so long ago as though the Premier League had changed forever.
The four campaigns between 2021-22 and 2024-25 were the four highest-scoring in the competition’s history. Each one averaged at least 2.82 goals per game, when before that point, Premier League games had averaged 2.65 goals per game. It was described as “the Premier League goal explosion” by one very well-respected football stats website in March 2024, and the trend continued into the following campaign.
But this season, things have been just a little different. Goals are being scored at a rate of just 2.48 goals per game.
Given we’re only five matchdays into the season, it might not even be worth commenting on. Scoring rates have been so high in recent seasons that it would be reasonable to conclude they will rise again before long.
But in the context of those recent high-scoring campaigns, this season’s rate of 2.48 goals per game is remarkable. It is the third-lowest rate in any Premier League season, and it’s only 0.03 goals per game ahead of the lowest-scoring season – 2.45 goals per game in 2006-07. This season’s rate is also the lowest it has been since 2008-09.
Jonathan Manuel / Data AnalystLooking only at non-penalty goals, 2025-26 drops to the second-lowest scoring Premier League season, with 2.24 per game. That makes this season even closer to the lowest rate ever (2.22 per game in 2006-07) than it is for goals per game.
As the above graph shows, the general trend has been towards more goals in recent times compared to the early years of the Premier League era. That makes this season’s drop in goals even more surprising.
Very generally, the rise in goals in the last few years has been attributed to an increase in quality across the board. Pitches, coaching, nutrition, physiology, finances; everything in the Premier League is improving and has been for years. Meanwhile, the increase in added-on time at the end of each half has made games longer, meaning there is more time to score when teams are pushing for a late goal. With all of these changes, it followed that more goals were being scored.
But this season, it’s not like there has been a drastic change in any of those elements of the game. The pitches haven’t suddenly got worse. Teams aren’t spending any less on players or wages. There has also been more stoppage time added to games on average than last season. And although the ball has been in play less this term (54 minutes, 39 seconds) on average than any other recent season, it is only down on 2022-23 by 13 seconds per game (54 minutes, 52 seconds) and that was one of the highest-scoring campaigns in Premier League history.
So, what are the reasons for this season’s surprise drop in the numbers?
It’s worth reiterating the point that we are only five matchdays into the season, and given the “explosion” of goals in recent seasons, a sharp increase in the number being scored is arguably as likely as this season’s current rate continuing.
After all, many of the league’s best sides are still to hit their best form. Manchester City haven’t yet found their stride. Arsenal haven’t been quite as fluid in attack as they can be. And even though Liverpool are the league’s current top scorers, they haven’t been anywhere near as effective going forward as they were last season.
Each of those teams are bedding in new attackers following a busy summer in the transfer window, and that may well be contributing to slightly worse performances in attack. Rayan Cherki, Florian Wirtz, Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres and Eberechi Eze are just a few new names in attack at these three title-chasing clubs.
There have also been significant changes in personnel in attack at plenty of other clubs, including Newcastle, Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Everton, Brentford and Brighton, with at least a couple of major signings or departures from each of their attacking positions. There’ll be a period of adjustment for every one of those teams we’ve mentioned – and that is 10 of the 17 ever-present teams.
It isn’t just players finishing off chances poorly, either. Premier League games are producing just 22.5 shots on average this season, which is the lowest rate of attempts in any Premier League season on record (since 2003-04). Teams are creating chances less consistently this season than ever before, which could, again, be down to it being early in the season and there being lots for everyone to get used to, not least new teammates.
There are some other potential explanations, too, though. The fact that none of the promoted teams are struggling particularly with the step up to the top flight will surely have made a difference. After Southampton’s relegation, there are no whipping boys in the Premier League this season. Big wins are therefore less common.
There is also, however, the possibility that this has all happened by design. Much of the football we’ve seen in 2025-26 looks rather like what we watched three decades ago – a topic we’ve already covered this season – and it could be that more direct football means teams aren’t as effective at creating chances.
Back to the 90s?
Premier LeagueMore Long Balls, Fewer High Turnovers, and Set-Piece Reliance: Are Premier League Teams Going More Direct?
15 hours ago David Segar Premier LeagueLong Throws, Long Balls and Booting the Ball Straight Out: Four ‘New’ Premier League Trends
2 weeks ago Ali TweedaleIt’s impossible to say for sure either what the cause is or what the effect is. Are teams going long more because they are struggling to play through the thirds as they bed in new players? Or are they going long more often on purpose, and that is leading to more attacking moves failing?
Given quite how many teams are playing a more direct style – something we’ve covered in this article – it appears as though it is a conscious decision by Premier League clubs to attack directly towards goal.
Long balls are up on recent seasons. More teams are booting their goal-kicks long up the pitch. Some teams are choosing to kick the ball straight out of play from kick-off to gain territory rather than keep hold of the ball in their own half. It all amounts to something that might be deemed defensive football. Or, at least, a cautious approach to attacking.
Arsenal aren’t a defensive team. They aren’t a low-scoring team, either. But they have built their success in the last couple of years on an exceptional defence rather than a free-scoring attack, and it stands to reason that other clubs would now be choosing to follow their lead. ‘Pragmatism’ is the name of the game these days, and sometimes that means shutting up shop. Even Manchester City did it at the Emirates on Sunday, something few would ever have expected from a Pep Guardiola side. The Spaniard even withdrew most of his attacking players late on as he tried to protect a 1-0 lead.
Guardiola has since admitted that Arsenal’s strength meant his side couldn’t play the way he wanted, and perhaps that hints at a better explanation as to why teams are struggling to score.
The quality of Premier League teams across the board means that just about every team has the attacking quality to score against anyone, so managers may now be setting their teams up with the primary aim of stopping the opposition, rather than hoping to outscore them.
That may at least in part explain the incredibly high rate of 0-0 draws this season. Twelve of the 50 Premier League matches in 2025-26 have ended goalless, the second-highest rate of 0-0s in any season in Premier League history (24.0%) after 1998-99 (25.8%). Perhaps more teams are more worried about the quality of their opponents this term than they have been in recent years, and that is leading to more caution.
There is every chance this won’t continue. We might have seen the last goalless draw of the season. Goals per game might skyrocket this weekend. The Premier League goal explosion might well come back to life.
Last weekend, there were more goals than the week before. Matchday 5 produced 27 goals, almost perfectly in line with the Premier League average for goals per game, when MD 4 had produced just 19. That might hint that we are heading back towards the free-scoring ways of the last few years.
But dig a little deeper into the data, and there may be reason to believe that isn’t all that likely.
Matchday 5 of the 2025-26 produced the lowest expected goals total of any round of Premier League fixtures on record (since 2016-17). The 20 teams combined for a record low of 19.4 xG, suggesting there was less ambition, capability, or both from Premier League teams last weekend than there has been at any other point in the past decade.
As expensive new signings find their feet, this might all change, but there is also a chance we are moving into a more cautious period for English football.
This could be the start of the Premier League goal implosion.
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Premier League Goals Have Dipped Dramatically After Years of High Scoring Rates – But Why? Opta Analyst.
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