This week, European allies warned that they were prepared to shoot down Russian planes violating Nato airspace after a series of incursions by Russia.
It marked a hardening of position on Moscow for the US President, who has previously demonstrated sympathy for the Kremlin narrative over the Ukraine war and contempt for America’s European allies.
The jets were escorted away by Italian F35s participating in Nato’s Baltic Air Policing mission. Then on Sunday, Germany and Sweden scrambled fighter jets to track an unidentified Russian surveillance plane flying in neutral airspace over the Baltic Sea.
The British foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, accused Putin of “dangerous and reckless” actions that “open the door to direct armed confrontation between Nato and Russia”, and warned: “We are resolute, and if we need to confront planes that are operating in Nato airspace without permission, then we will do so.”
British RAF fighter jets have been sent to Poland as part of Nato’s Eastern Sentry operation to bolster the eastern flank.
But questions remain over whether Nato would have the nerve to take serious action against Russia amid Trump’s wavering support, fears of escalating confrontation with Russia, and how this affects the war in Ukraine.
A furious Russia warned of “serious consequences” and imposed sanctions on Turkey, but did not declare war or even retaliate militarily. Over the past two weeks, many officials and analysts have pointed to the incident to urge a more forceful response to Russia’s latest airspace violations.
A Royal Air Force FGR4 Typhoon during the first Royal Air Force Eastern Sentry deployment over Poland, pictured last Friday (Photo: Ben Birchall/PA)“That would be a dramatic escalation and possibly an uncontrolled escalation,” said John Lough, senior research fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre and former Nato official in Moscow. “Then you got to accept Russia will respond in a range of ways, and you may, you may not, be able to forecast what they all are, but the goal would be to disable Nato’s military capacity by ensuring it was politically overwhelmed.
Ed Arnold, senior research fellow in European Security at the Royal United Services Institute, pointed out that Russian airspace incursions are routine in Europe. “The issue at the moment is we’re seeing an increase in the volume of that activity,” he said.
“Putin’s risk appetite is high. You don’t want to misinterpret that and cause unwanted escalation,” he said. An accident could lead to shooting between Nato and Russia. “Whether it develops into a full-scale war I’m not so sure,” he said.
Patrycja Bazylczyk, programme manager at the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said shooting down a Russian plane could prompt Moscow to escalate with, for example, more incursions – or could lead to a situation in which Russia is deterred from taking further action.
Nato needs Trump for credible deterrence
The former Estonian air chief Jaak Tarien told local media that during peacetime, force was not the first response. He added that further intervention could follow if the Russian planes were, in theory, carrying air-to-ground weapons and heading for a specific target.
Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, right and Nato Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus G Grynkewich, discuss the violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones in Brussels (Photo: Simon Wohlfahrt / AFP)That, he emphasised, depended on the US. Since Trump’s return to power, Putin has appeared emboldened by the American President’s unwillingness to impose any consequences on Moscow as it ramps up its war in Ukraine and interference operations against Nato.
Nato, however, is assured enough not to feel pressured into responding too strongly to Russian recklessness, according to Russia expert Dr Mark Galeotti.
He suggested a host of other actions Nato could take against Russian jets including firing warning shots in the vicinity of any offending plane, bringing it into a radar lock as though to fire a missile, or generating wake turbulence to disrupt it.
Bazylczyk said a unified response from Nato could “change Russia’s political calculus to make them realise that their pattern of escalation is only going to trigger more escalation from or measured response from Nato members”.
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Read MoreNato could look at other asymmetric actions, including giving more of certain weapons to Ukraine, sending further deployments to northern and eastern Nato states, as well as reinforcements for its Eastern Sentry airspace defence mission. “There’s a lot of very subtle signalling that has to take place,” Lough said. He added that allies could even close the Baltic Sea if they wanted to strangle Russian exports.
Trump’s comments this week, alongside the declaration of his UN ambassador, Mike Waltz, to the Security Council that the US would “defend every inch of Nato territory”, has gone some way to restore at least some hope in the strength of the alliance – and Nato may take that to step up its deterrence posture.
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