Who will win the UEFA Europa League in 2025-26? We look at all the key questions with our Europa League predictions for the upcoming season via our trusty Opta supercomputer.
Editor’s Note: This piece was written ahead of the 2025-26 Europa League. For live, updating Europa League predictions, visit this page.
The 2025-26 UEFA Europa League gets under way on Wednesday 24 September with the first nine games of Matchday 1 of the league phase, and the other nine taking place a day later.
Tottenham Hotspur lifted the famous trophy in May after beating Manchester United 1-0 in the final in Bilbao. Spurs will not be defending their title, however, due to that victory earning them a place in this season’s Champions League, but their manager that famous night, Ange Postecoglou, does have the chance to win it again with his new employers, Nottingham Forest.
Another coach with a rich history in the competition also has another crack at it, with Unai Emery leading Aston Villa’s charge. The Spaniard has already won the Europa League an astonishing four times, and will be hoping to make it five this season.
There will be plenty of teams out to try and ensure we don’t have another all-English final, though, with 2025-26 looking like quite a competitive field in the Europa League.
The tournament increased from 32 to 36 teams last season as all three major European competitions underwent a significant format change, and that continues this season.
It all begins with a single league stage in which all clubs play eight matches in one massive 36-club table. Finishing in the top eight ensures immediate qualification for the last 16, while the teams between ninth and 24th contest the Europa League play-off round for the right to join the leading sides in the knockout stage.
There is no more UEFA Conference League safety net – the bottom 12 from the 36 and the eight teams who lose in the play-off round will all be immediately eliminated from continental football for this season.
But who will win the whole thing? The Opta supercomputer has simulated the 2025-26 competition 10,000 times and confirmed its pre-tournament percentages. So, without further ado, let’s run through its UEFA Europa League predictions.
UEFA Europa League 2025-26 Predictions
Aston Villa (23.3%) are the favourites to win the Europa League in 2025-26, according to the Opta supercomputer. Nottingham Forest are third favourites (10.2%), behind Villa and Roma (13.0%). Lyon are third favourites to win the league phase (11.4%), partly due to having the kindest fixture list according to the supercomputer.Europa League Favourites in 2025-26
Aston Villa surprised a few people in the Champions League last season. Their 1-0 win over Bayern Munich in the league phase was impressive, while they also gave eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain a real scare in the quarter-finals.
They find themselves in the Europa League this season, though, and while they might wish they were still in the Champions League, Villa have a real chance of winning their first European silverware since lifting the European Cup in 1982. That is despite a really tough start to their campaign so far this season.
Villa are still yet to win a game in all competitions this season, and currently sit inside the relegation zone in the Premier League. That said, there is still clear pedigree in this squad, and they are managed by Unai Emery, who is a master in Europe.
Aston Villa are 12th in the Opta Power Rankings – 12 places higher than anyone else in the Europa League in 2025-26 – and that makes them clear favourites to win this season’s competition with the Opta supercomputer, doing so in 23.3% of simulations.
Victory would mean that Emery, the most successful manager in UEFA Cup/Europa League history, would not only win his fifth Europa League title, but do so with a third different team with ‘Villa’ in their name, having already won it with Sevilla three times, and Villarreal once. Yes, that’s a real stat and we’re happy with it.
The other English representative in the competition this season are Nottingham Forest, competing in Europe for the first time since they reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Cup in 1995-96.
Forest finished seventh in the Premier League last season, so should have been in the Conference League, but they were moved into the Europa League after FA Cup winners Crystal Palace’s demotion to the Conference League due to rules around multi-club ownership.
They will hope to take advantage of their good fortune and recently hired the man who won the Europa League last season, Ange Postecoglou, to replace Nuno Espírito Santo. The Australian is yet to win with his new club, but according to the Opta supercomputer, Forest win the Europa League in 10.2% of simulations, making them third favourites.
Villa’s closest challenger is considered to be Roma. The Serie A giants also have a boss with European experience and pedigree, and big things are expected of Gian Piero Gasperini’s time in the Italian capital. He had a fantastic nine years with Atalanta, which included winning the Europa League in 2024.
Roma won the Conference League in 2022, but have never won the UEFA Cup/Europa League, finishing as runners-up in 1991 and 2023. According to the supercomputer, they finally win it this season in 13.0% of sims.
Other Europa League Contenders
There will be a credible threat from France, with Lille expected to challenge. Bruno Génésio’s side qualified automatically for the last 16 of the Champions League last season after finishing seventh in the 36-team league phase, though were then eliminated after narrowly losing 3-2 on aggregate to Borussia Dortmund.
They lost key striker Jonathan David in the summer, but did bring in experienced World Cup winner Olivier Giroud, as well as Hamza Igamane from Rangers. Lille win the Europa League in 8.1% of sims, slightly higher than Ligue 1 rivals Lyon, who do so in 6.7%, despite losing the likes of Rayan Cherki, Georges Mikautadze and Lucas Perri over the summer.
Lyon are actually the third favourites to finish top of the league phase (11.4%), likely due to them having the ‘easiest’ set of fixtures according to the Opta supercomputer.
Bologna were also Champions League participants in 2024-25, but struggled. They finished 28th out of the 36 teams in the league phase and were eliminated. Manager Vincenzo Italiano led the club to their first Coppa Italia in 51 years last season, though, which is why they find themselves in the Europa League, and they are given a 5.7% chance of winning it.
Two-time UEFA Cup/Europa League winners FC Porto changed manager in the summer, with former Ajax boss Francesco Farioli coming in. He lifts a European trophy in his first season in 5.3% of sims.
Robin van Persie won the UEFA Cup as a player with Feyenoord in 2002, and will be looking to do the same as head coach 24 years later. Like Lille, the Eredivisie side were knocked out of the Champions League at the last-16 stage last season by eventual finalists Inter, but they bounced back by winning the Europa League in 5.1% of simulations.
Stuttgart won their first DFB-Pokal in 28 years last season, though their disappointing ninth-place finish in the Bundesliga could be why they only win the Europa League this season in 3.2% of simulations, while Real Betis – Conference League finalists in 2024-25 – do so in 3.1%.
Best of the Rest
With all due respect to the Europa League, Celtic really didn’t want to be here. Their penalty shootout defeat to Kazakhstan’s Kairat Almaty in UCL qualifying was a surprise to say the least, and Brendan Rodgers was given more bad news when he saw the draw for the league phase of the Europa League. Celtic were handed the third hardest draw out of all 36 teams according to the Opta supercomputer, which also places their chances of winning the competition at 2.2%.
If you want to win a European trophy, you could do a lot worse than having José Mourinho as your manager. For Fenerbahçe, though, that is no longer the case after the legendary Portuguese coach was sacked following the Turkish club’s defeat in Champions League qualifying. Domenico Tedesco has replaced him, and will be hoping they can lift the Europa League this year in particular as the final will be in Istanbul at the nearby Beşiktaş Stadium, ironically Mourinho’s new home. They are given a 1.7% chance of doing so.
Fixture difficulty
Europa LeagueEuropa League 2025-26 Fixture Difficulty: Who Has the Easiest and Toughest League Phase Games?
4 weeks ago Matt FurnissIt might cheer Celtic fans up that they have a better chance than rivals Rangers, though, who only win the Europa League 0.2% of the time, while the Bhoys have a 20.4% chance of making it to the last 16, compared to Rangers’ 7.7%.
The only other teams who went on to win the competition at least 1% of the time were Crvena zvezda (1.7%), Freiburg (1.7%), Celta Vigo (1.3%), Sporting Braga (1.2%) and Genk (1.1%),
Europa League Outsiders
We’re getting into ‘very unlikely’ territory now, but bear in mind that before last season’s Europa League, Bodø/Glimt were only given a 0.6% chance of winning it by the supercomputer and they went on to reach the semi-finals, so don’t count these teams out entirely.
Dinamo Zagreb came agonisingly close to reaching the knockout stage of the Champions League last season, finishing 25th in the league phase on goal difference. They will hope to do better in the Europa League this time around, and even manage to win it in 0.8% of sims.
Sturm Graz, Malmö FF, and Ferencvaros all have a 0.3% chance of winning the competition this season.
Utrecht have reached the first proper stage of a European competition for the first time since the 2010-11 season, when they finished bottom of a group in the Europa League that included Liverpool and Napoli. They came fourth in the Eredivisie last season and will hope to surprise a few, though the supercomputer doubts they’ll go all the way (0.2%).
Only one team competing in the Europa League this season failed to win it across the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations: Go Ahead Eagles.
Who will actually end up with the prize in May? We’ll all have to wait and see.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Europa League Predictions 2025-26: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about europa league predictions 2025 26 the opta supercomputer projections was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Europa League Predictions 2025-26: The Opta Supercomputer Projections )
Also on site :