Gov. Gavin Newsom has been waging a media war against President Donald Trump — particularly with uber-snarky social media posts — while promoting a ballot measure aimed at increasing Democrats’ congressional seats, portraying it as a way to blunt Trump’s lust for power.
Newsom clearly seeks recognition as Trump’s most effective political foe, political pundits of all flavors believe, thus positioning himself as the Democratic Party’s leading presidential hopeful in 2028.
Is it working? In purely political terms, yes. In polling and other tests of political sentiment, Newsom appears to have become the unofficial frontrunner, three years before voters will be electing the next president.
“California Gov. Gavin Newsom has seized attention like no other Democrat in President Donald Trump’s second term as he works to position himself as a de facto head of the resistance in a leaderless party,” a recent Washington Post article declared.
“Influencers on both the left and the right have discussed Newsom online more than any other potential 2028 presidential contender since Trump’s inauguration … The attention has been driven by his response to immigration raids in Los Angeles, his efforts to counter a Republican redistricting push and, most recently, his mocking impersonations of Trump’s social media style.”
Alex Hoffman, a Democratic strategist and donor adviser, told the Post: “Democrats are so desperate for leadership right now that they’ll take anything they can get. Gavin is filling a void.”
This week, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini published a simulated Democratic primary, placing Newsom in first place in a seven-candidate field with “a 29.7 percent chance of winning across 10,000 simulations.” He’s followed by progressive firebrand Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with a 19.5 percent chance, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 13.4 percent, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 12.2 percent, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at 11.3 percent, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker at 9.0 percent, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 5.1 percent. Former Vice President Kamala Harris was not included in the list.
Ruffini cites Newsom’s “best polling at the moment, the second-best fundraising, and ideological positioning in the middle of the party” as his strongest attributes.
If, indeed, Newsom is laying the groundwork for a 2028 White House bid, he would have to maintain momentum while continuing to govern the state for the next 16 months and move beyond just portraying Trump as the devil incarnate.
In the meantime, his constituents will feel the impact of Newsom’s feud with Trump. For one thing, those who lost homes and loved ones in the deadly firestorms that swept through Los Angeles neighborhoods this year will probably never see a dime of the $40 billion in federal relief funds Newsom and other officials have sought.
Newsom also faces blowback from the universe of right-leaning podcasts, YouTube channels and social media postings. Video clips from some less savory chapters of Newsom’s personal life and political career are already surfacing, such as his infamously unmasked appearance at a birthday party during the COVID-19 pandemic, his affair with the wife of a close friend while mayor of San Francisco and revelations about his drinking habits.
One clip shows Newsom in 2007 criticizing and walking away from a reporter who asked him about the drinking. It’s an example of Newsom’s thin skin, which could be a liability if and when he becomes a presidential candidate.
Finally, Newsom’s record as governor will be an issue, with critics citing California’s many unresolved issues, such as homelessness, housing shortages, cost of living and poverty. Just this week, the Census Bureau revealed that when the state’s high living costs are factored in, California continues to have the nation’s highest poverty rate at 17.7 percent, tied with Louisiana.
Newsom will learn that being an early frontrunner pins a target on his back.
Dan Walters is one of most decorated and widely syndicated columnists in California history, authoring a column four times a week that offers his view and analysis of the state’s political, economic, social and demographic trends. He began covering California politics in 1975, just as Jerry Brown began his first stint as governor, and began writing his column in 1981, first for the Sacramento Union for three years, then for The Sacramento Bee for 33 years and now for CalMatters since 2017.
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