The precious metal is consolidating now after reaching $3675 on Tuesday in a spike higher. It's likely to continue sideways until Wednesday's FOMC decision. A dovish bent from the Fed chair would be a green light for the gold bulls to take it another leg higher. I don't think we'd need to see a surprise 50 bps cut but if Powell validates employment concerns and downplays inflation then it could continue the surge.
On the geopolitical side, the US appears to be trying to ramp up pressure on Russia to enter talks on Ukraine peace. That presents two-sided risks as harsher Russian sanctions or reserve confiscation could strengthen the case for gold, while a peace deal would weaken it. My sense is that Trump has played his best cards in terms of diplomacy but Russia isn't interested and feels it has the upper hand in the war.
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