JJ McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings face off against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night.
After struggling in the first half against Chicago, JJ McCarthy started to settle in as he torched the Bears secondary in their comeback win on Monday night. Their defense played a major role in their turnaround, a performance that mirrored their success last season. With the Atlanta Falcons struggling to consistently move the ball down the field, expect the Vikings defense to continue to play at a high level.
Even though there is only one game being played on Sunday night, there are plenty of prop bets to wager on which you can read a detailed breakdown of them below.
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Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings (8:20pm, EST)
Bijan Robinson Under 68.5 Rushing Yards: (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
Heading into the year, Bijan Robinson was expected to take a major leap forward with his production as he was listed as one of the top contenders for the Offensive Player of the Year award. Unfortunately for Robinson, he struggled to get into a groove against Tampa Bay in week one as the star running back was held to just 24 rushing yards and 2 yards per carry.
Even more alarming, his back up Tyler Allgeier nearly matched his output as he finished the contest with 10 carries to Robinson’s 12. With the Minnesota Vikings front seven ranked near the top of the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and in Success Rate, expect both running backs to continue to struggle. The Falcons are also expected to play from behind per the spread, meaning they may be forced to throw the ball at a heavier rate which will eat away at Robinson’s carries.
Bijan Robinson Longest Rush Under 14.5 Yards: (-119) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Vikings defensive scheme will also make it tough for Robinson to generate an explosive play as the Vikings are capable of creating pressure with just their front four as they rank league average in Blitz Rate and in Pressure Rate. With Robinson being slowed down in the trenches, the Vikings linebackers will have extra time in the open field to recognize the run and crash down to stop him in his tracks.
Michael Penix Jr Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: (-175) at BetMGM Sportsbook
Not only did the Vikings bring back a majority of their front seven who excelled at stopping the run, but they also brought back a secondary who ranked top-3 in Def Pass DVOA. Even with their defensive line struggling to bring down the quarterback as their below league average mark in Adjusted Sack Rate indicates, the Vikings back end still had no issue with lessening the quality of opposing passing lanes.
Brian Flores scheme also puts quarterbacks in a pretzel as he calls the highest blend of quarters coverage and the blitz. This makes quarterbacks uncomfortable in the pocket which increases the amount of Havoc in their throws. Especially when backed up inside the 20 as the Vikings are allowed to stretch out their elite coverage without sacrificing too much ground.
JJ McCarthy Over 210.5 Passing Yards: (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Even though the Falcons spent the offseason bolstering their pass rush, negative regression looms large as they face off against a Vikings offensive line who leads the league in Pass Protect Win Rate. This will give McCarthy more time in the pocket to let his plays develop, as well as more time for their receivers to break away from the opposing coverage which will drastically increase the quality of his throws.
Jordan Mason Anytime Touchdown: (+115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
Even though Jordan Mason is listed as the RB2 on Minnesota’ depth chart, he played a bigger role than Aaron Jones in week one as he finished the contest with 15 carries to his 8. Mason was also the only running back to receive a carry in the red zone, signaling he is the Vikings go-to option when in scoring position.
With the Falcons defense ranking well below league average in Def Rush Success Rate and in Adjusted Line Yards, Mason will have a great opportunity to exploit their gaps in the trenches and punch one in for six. For some more exposure, escalator bet Mason’s touchdown prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals.
About the author
Kody Malstrom
Kody Malstrom is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with six years of experience covering a vast majority of sports. He covers football, basketball, hockey, baseball, and the UFC in written and video form.
Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a Detroit sports fan who spends all of his Sundays in the fall rooting for the Detroit Lions and Saturdays watching as much College Football as possible. In the winter, he shifts his focus to the Detroit Red Wings and Pistons while simultaneously rooting for his North Carolina Tar Heels.
When he is not staring at betting markets, you can find Kody at the beach or snowboarding down a mountain, depending on the time of the year.
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