We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Gtech Community Stadium with our Brentford vs Chelsea prediction and preview. Which way will this west London derby go?
Brentford vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
Chelsea are the favourites for this trip to Brentford, with the Opta supercomputer rating their chances of a victory at 44.1%. Just one of the eight Premier League meetings between Brentford and Chelsea have ended in a home win. Only Mohamed Salah has more Premier League assists than Enzo Fernández since the start of last season.Chelsea’s London-centric start to 2025-26 continues with a trip to Brentford on Saturday evening.
Enzo Maresca’s men drew with Crystal Palace before beating West Ham and Fulham. It makes them just the second team in English Football League history to start a league campaign with four consecutive London derbies, after Palace did so four years ago. Given they have scored seven goals while conceding only one across three matches, the Blues will be happy to stay in the capital for as long as they can.
Brentford have had more success in London this season, too. The Bees won their only home match to date, beating Aston Villa 1-0 thanks to a goal from summer signing Dango Ouattara. If their 3-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest in Matchday 1 wasn’t a shock, losing 2-1 at Sunderland having taking the lead just 13 minutes from time was far from ideal on the last gameweek.
Their stumbling form also represents a downturn on the end of the Thomas Frank era. Brentford only lost two of his final 10 league games in charge, winning five of them. Having said farewell to the likes of Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Nørgaard, Yoane Wissa and their manager since the end of 2024-25, it’s hardly surprising the Bees are taking a little while to take flight under Keith Andrews.
There have been signs of encouragement. On top of new boy Ouattara getting off the mark, Igor Thiago has scored three goals in four competitive games in 2025-26. Due to injury, he was restricted to a solitary league start in his debut campaign last term. Can anyone hear the ‘like a new signing’ cliché klaxon yet?
Igor Thiago’s task will be made more difficult here as he will be up against the shrewdest defence in the division. After keeping just four clean sheets in Maresca’s first 26 Premier League games, Chelsea have logged nine in their last 15. It’s the most of any team in the top flight since that run began on 25 February.
The Blues’ backline will need to be sharp on the ball with Igor Thiago sniffing around, though. He has applied 132 high-intensity pressures in the opposition’s half this season, 27 more than any other player, and he also leads the way for high-intensity pressures in the final third of the pitch (88). With the forwards Brentford have lost, it is vital the Brazilian remains fit. He should be available here.
Four players who are doubts for the Bees are Gustavo Gomes, Vitaly Janelt, Yunus Konak and Paris Maghoma. Chelsea have more men out, though it’s possible Cole Palmer will be able to return. This would obviously be huge for Maresca, not least as it would free João Pedro to play up front.
Either way, Benoît Badiashile, Liam Delap, Dario Essugo and Roméo Lavia won’t be making the short trip across town. It’s hard to make the case that any of that quartet will be dearly missed here, not least as the Chelsea boss can call upon two very in-form players.
After a relatively slow start to his career in England, Enzo Fernández has caught fire in 2025. He has scored five goals and set up a further nine in his last 18 appearances in all competitions. With 18 assists (all comps) since the start of 2024-25, Fernández is second only to Mohamed Salah when ranked against other Premier League players.
If the Argentine can get the ball to his fellow South American Estêvão, then sparks should fly. The Brazilian is second in the Premier League standings for dribbles even though he has only played 181 of the possible 270 minutes to date.
Estêvão’s nine dribbles against Fulham made him the youngest player on record (since 2006-07) with that many in a game for Chelsea, and the youngest for any club since Raheem Sterling attempted nine against Stoke back in 2012.
With four take-ons completed in the right half of the final third in the Blues’ previous match, the presence of Estêvão could make it a long night for Keane Lewis-Potter if he retains his place on the left of the Brentford back four. But this match will be a difficult test for the home side regardless.
Brentford vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
The head-to-head in this derby is peculiar, in the sense that it heavily favours the away side.
The record for home teams in the eight Premier League fixtures between Brentford and Chelsea is one win, three draws and four defeats. Brentford’s only victories against their near neighbours have all occurred at Stamford Bridge.
They haven’t lost any of the last three at home either, though. With two of those matches ending 0-0, this could prove a cagey affair.
Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is favouring blue over red for this derby.
Having run 10,000 simulations of the match, it found Chelsea were the winners 44.1% of the time. Brentford were triumphant in 30.8% of the run-throughs, with the other 25.1% ending in a draw.
The last three meetings at the Gtech Community Stadium ended all-square, so perhaps that outcome is likelier than the supercomputer results suggest.
Brentford vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Brentford: Caoimhín Kelleher, Michael Kayode, Nathan Collins, Sepp van den Berg, Keane Lewis-Potter, Jordan Henderson, Yehor Yarmoliuk, Dango Ouattara, Mikkel Damsgaard, Kevin Schade, Igor Thiago.
Head coach: Keith Andrews
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Trevoh Chalobah, Tosin Adarabioyo, Marc Cucurella, Moisés Caicedo, Enzo Fernández, Pedro Neto, Estêvão, Jamie Gittens, João Pedro.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend in London, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction: Blues Targeting Third Successive London Derby Win Opta Analyst.
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