Forgive the sarcasm, but it’s been blindingly obvious since Trump returned to office that his light-touch plan of bringing Putin to heel has failed at every step. Russian attacks on Ukraine have increased significantly since Trump’s White House return, while Putin has repeatedly tested Western solidarity – particularly that of the Nato alliance.
The Kremlin has denied that the drones were Russian, calling Poland’s assertions “groundless”, and has claimed that they came from Ukraine. Online tracking of drone flight paths and images of the drones themselves heavily support Poland’s contention that they originated from Russia.
Everything about the incident in Poland plays perfectly into Putin’s hands, when you consider his wider objectives for dealing with the West.
Russian drones carrying large payloads entering the airspace of a Nato ally that borders Ukraine is enough for a full Article 5 response. The reality that the alliance is stopping short of that and refusing to call it an attack is an easy propaganda win for Putin. He can claim to Russian citizens it is yet more proof that Nato is scared of mighty Russia.
square RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR Russia's latest deadly strikes on Ukraine show Putin remains intent on conquest
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For Western audiences, it tells the story of division among allies. A divided alliance makes responding to Putin very difficult for Nato. The nature of being a 32-country group that is underpinned by unity means that any retaliation comes with a lot of bureaucracy. That means responses risk being watered down or drawn out. Compare this to an autocrat like Putin, who has full control of his army and nuclear weapons, and suddenly the Russian threat looks formidable to Westerners – especially if they fear America is no longer committed to European security.
Trump’s efforts to bring an end to the war and deal with Putin have been at best inconsistent. Since returning to office he has berated Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and blamed him for the war, dragged his heels on continuing US support for Kyiv before approving the sale of high-powered American weapons. He has threatened Russia with deadline after deadline, only to let them pass and then welcome the Russian president on US soil at this August’s farcical peace summit.
This doesn’t need to be the case. Russia’s victory in Ukraine is also not a foregone conclusion. Putin has thrown human lives and money at this war, only to make marginal gains and reach an effective deadlock. He absolutely could not afford to get into a wider conflict with Nato.
The West has the resources to stand up to Putin and stop handing him propaganda wins. But it needs its de facto leader in the White House to realise that Putin is laughing at him. It needs Trump to see Putin as the enemy he is.
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