US President Trump has been attempting to mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine but said this week “they are not ready yet” to come to a deal.
Talks are in deadlock, as Putin continues to make maximalist demands to end his battery of Ukraine.
The four have already been confirmed as part of Russian territory in its constitution – although integrating the territories has not been recognised internationally.
Many analysts who have spoken to The i Paper now believe the most likely outcome is for the war to end along the current battlelines, where Russia currently control around 20 per cent of Ukrainian land.
Firefighters douse flames at a residential building while rescuers search the rubble for victims after a Russian ballistic missile strike on 28 August 2025 in Kyiv, Ukraine. (Photo: Pierre Crom/Getty Images)Territorial concessions may be enough to broker a short term peace deal, but experts believe Putin may launch future invasions in a bid to expand Russia’s borders.
Ferris said it “highly likely that any peace settlement that negotiates an end to the war along the current contact line will buy Russia time to rearm and reconstitute its armed forces to attempt further territorial gains in future.”
Neutrality and demilitarisation
Putin has consistently opposed Ukrainian membership of Nato, and Trump recently confirmed that he would not support Ukraine entering the alliance, saying there is “no going into Nato by Ukraine” as part of a peace deal.
Sir Keir Starmer has reaffirmed the UK’s commitment Ukraine’s “irreversible path” to joining Nato (Photo: PA/ Jordan Pettitt)
Ferris said: “Russia would like to see a militarily weakened Ukraine with limited ability to prevent Russia from future warfare – this could include limits on further western weaponry supplied to Ukraine and intelligence sharing and training with the west.”
The UK, along with France, has led a so-called coalition of the willing, a group of nations who have pledged to support post-war Ukrainian security.
Neil Melvin, director of international security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) previously told The i Paper that the Kremlin could also try to force political and cultural change within Ukraine.
Ferris said that Putin will “likely use the next few years to interfere in Ukrainian politics, with the aim of identifying political parties and leaders that are sympathetic towards Russia.”
Trump has been attempting to broker peace, but has made little success. (Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)Defence intelligence firm Janes said that this was likely to mean Kremlin will demand change of Zelensky’s Kyiv government and political reforms in favour of Russian minorities, such use of their language and religious freedoms.
Lifting of sanctions
“Recognition as being a power on a par with the US and China – which Russia considers part of the ‘geopolitical troika’, alonside itself – is highly important to Putin,” Ferris said.
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But Janes senior analyst Alex Petric said that the Kremlin very likely does not expect the Western sanctions to be lifted to any significant extent.
“Regarding legal recognition of Crimea – Janes assesses that ‘de-jure recognition’ is very likely far less important for Kremlin than de-facto control of Ukraine’s regions.”
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