RBC: Trade war hit Canadian jobs market in August ...Middle East

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She notes that the weakness mirrors a softening picture in the US.

"Most of the job losses were part-time, actual hours worked edged up 0.1%, and weakness remained relatively concentrated in the trade exposed sectors of the economy– employment in manufacturing, transport and warehousing together shrank by 42k in August," Fan wrote.

"The negative job market report today increases the odds that the BoC could see fit to cut interest rates further," Fan writes. Pricing currently shows a 92% chance of a cut, which she says could be solidified by a benign CPI report the day before the Sept 16 decision.

Another softer inflation print could raise odds for additional easing relative to our current base case that assumes the BoC has already reached the end of the cycle.

Going forward, condition in trade exposed sectors will likely continue to worsen but we don't expect that will spread and cause a sharp, broad-based contraction. For that, we point to 1) relatively low average tariff rate on Canada among major U.S. trade partners thanks to CUSMA exemptions and 2) healthy domestic consumer spending trends as reasons why we expect resilience in other sectors will help keep a floor under broader economic conditions. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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