On the one hand, I really love what Daniel Palencia brings to the table as the Cubs closer. He’s got legitimately elite velocity, even relative to this era, and enough command to wrangle it effectively. And he’s got a more-than-playable slider to balance it all out. I also acknowledge that, without him, we’d probably be in a pretty terrible spot right now, given that Ryan Pressly isn’t even on the Cubs and Porter Hodge is currently throwing in Iowa.
HOWEVER, it has not been great lately (clearly), and I’d like to explore what’s going on. So … what up, Daniel? You thinking about maybe being good again?
Daniel Palencia – Then and Now
From the start of his 2025 season (April 15) through July 31, Daniel Palencia was very, very good: .170 AVG against, 28.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, and a 1.40 ERA. Even though the peripherals are slightly weaker than his results during that stretch, Palencia still found himself in the mid-2.00s range of FIP and expected stats.
But after allowing just 6 ER through his first 38.2 IP, Daniel Palencia has now allowed almost as many runs to score (5) in just 9.1 innings in August (4.82 ERA, 1 blown save plus the game-winning run allowed last night).
So what’s different?
27.3) and his walk rate went the other way (7.4 -> 9.1), but those aren’t, themselves, too dramatic or worrisome. And at first, I was encouraged to see only a slightly uptick in his barrel rate (3.2 -> 3.6), both of which are truly fantastic.
So at a fundamental level, he’s still doing a lot of things well, and that’s somewhat encouraging. Unfortunately, it’s not the entire story.
Because even though Palencia is staying off the barrel in August, his hard-hit rate has absolutely exploded: 41.9% through July 31, 57.1% after. For a little reference, league average for relievers is 39.5%, so he went from just a little bit worse than average to HORRENDOUSLY worse.
Likewise, his groundball rate has declined by 5 percentage points while his linedrive rate has absolutely exploded: 18.7% through July 31, 35.7% after.
So pausing here, it’s not that difficult to understand what is going on: Daniel Palencia is walking a few more batters, striking out a few less, and allowing a lot more hard hit line drives. Not exactly a recipe for success.
But can we take a level deeper? Yes. So we march onward.
In his “good” stretch, Palencia was inducing a lot more swings on pitches out of the zone (28.8%) than he is now (21.4%), but also just more swings in general. In other words, batters have decided to start getting more aggressive. And while that’s not yet resulting in a lot more (quality-neutral) contact, it obviously has resulted in some more of the hard-hit, damaging type.
So the next logical question is about the pitch mix and velocity. The very good news is that Palencia has NOT started throwing the ball any softer. His fastball and slider velocities and horizontal movements are effectively identical, though the vertical break on his slider is down a little bit. Even still, on the whole, I’d say that likely rules out any of our major concerns about injury or wearing down.
So all that’s left is pitch mix. And therein does potentially lie a little clue.
© David Banks-Imagn ImagesBefore August, Daniel Palencia basically never threw his splitter (2.7%). But in these August innings, that rate is up to 9.0%, reaching double-digits (and up to 22.2%) in four of his ten appearances. That seems notable, but without understanding the Cubs plan here, I’m afraid I’m not sure I quite know what to make of it.
Here’s why:
The optimistic take: It’s possible the Cubs know Palencia’s splitter isn’t quite up to snuff yet, but believe that he can get it there before the end of the year/postseason. So there potentially is value in him trying it out more often to see if he can turn it into an effective third pitch to keep batters off his game. I’m not sure now would necessarily be the best time to do that, but it’s not inconceivable. And I can certainly see the value in giving him a few weeks to get the feel before the more important October innings arrive.
The pessimistic take: It’s also possible he has to start leaning on this pitch for less proactive and more reactive reasons. For example, maybe he can’t throw 102 MPH the rest of the season without wearing down. Or maybe the Cubs started to see hitters attacking him more confidently with just a two-pitch mix and they know that even worse results were coming if he didn’t try to change. I’m just spit-balling here, but I can see this making some sense, too.
And, then, of course, there’s the third thing: This has been just 9.1 innings of a 25-year-old reliever who’s never spent this much time in the big leagues. Natural ebbs and flows are going to happen and the book on him will be increasingly filled out.
I am not freaking out about Daniel Palencia yet, and I still think the quality of his stuff is exactly what the Cubs need in the ninth inning. I also think, outside of Brad Keller, the Cubs don’t have another arm remotely capable of taking over that role. And even if you did want to flip those two, it’s not like Keller is taking low-leverage appearances … ever.
So I’m choosing to hang on to the fact that (1) this is a small sample, (2) his velocity and movement is generally okay, and (3) that the strikeout/walk stuff hasn’t gone in the wrong direction yet. If any of those things start snowballing, we can have another conversation, but for now, I’ll be fine with Gasolina playing as the light show starts in the ninth inning at Wrigley Field.
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