Each day presents a new opportunity to discuss how a particular Cubs offensive player sure-has-been-putting-up-rough-numbers-lately. That’s fun. Maybe I can put a positive spin on this one.
Like most Cubs hitters, Seiya Suzuki has had a really rough go of it at the plate since the All-Star break: .182/.322/.256/75 wRC+. Unlike many of the others, though, his surface-level peripherals don’t really look all that bad, or maybe even tell a luck-driven story: 17.4% BB, 23.5% K, .233 BABIP, .074 ISO, 17.0% barrel(!), 44.3% hard contact, 39.8% groundball.
It’s 149 plate appearances, so it’s not a tiny sample, but I gotta say, when I look at that whole collection of numbers, I see a guy whose simply had a lot of hard luck on his best-struck balls. Anecdotally, that feels right, too.
It’s also nice to note that Suzuki’s results are better in August (.208/.357/.273/92 wRC+), mostly by virtue of simple positive regression (most of the difference is the BABIP climbing to .259). In other words, in theory, if he just keeps doing what he’s been doing, the balls will drop. One way he could help himself, though, would be putting the ball over the wall a bit more. Suzuki homered the day after the All-Star break, and has homered just once since (August 6). That’ll certainly ding your power production a great deal.
Craig Counsell at least sounded optimistic when discussing Suzuki’s recent play with the Tribune:
“The pitches that he’s had to drive he’s either missed, kind of fouled back, he’s hit some like the line drive with the bases loaded the other day … and it just creates a sac fly and one run,” Counsell said. “But I think he’s missed some pitches that probably are the home runs he had earlier in the season. And you don’t get many of those pitches, and when you don’t do something with that pitch then you’re kind of battling for a single a little bit.
“I think that’s kind of what Seiya’s been going through a little bit because he’s collecting the singles but not the big swings.”
In comparison to the guys who have struggled with apparent mechanical issues, or health issues, or increased swing-and-miss, I am inclined to be less worried about Seiya Suzuki over this last month of the regular season. Gut says it. Numbers say it. Eyes say it. Manager says it.
Of course, none of that matters until and unless the results actually say it, too.
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