Base case: USD likely to depreciate as US growth no longer justifies its high valuation; softening labor market reinforces this view.
Rates: Incoming data and Fed speak suggest more room to run in front-end rates, and their house view is for three 25bp cuts.
Inflation: Recent prints (including PPI) point to consumer prices not constraining policymakers; PPI mainly highlights a volatile, uncertain operating backdrop for firms.
FX momentum: Recent USD downside came in quiet markets and from foreign drivers, showing path of least resistance is lower.
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