JP Morgan says US tariffs are likely to deliver a meaningful hit to both economic growth and inflation, as Wall Street economists brace for the bulk of the impact to filter through over coming months.
JPMorgan expects the GDP impact to come mainly via weaker consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of US output, and estimates the drag will be “a bit under 1%” in the second half of the year. The bank’s warning comes as other forecasters note that pre-tariff inventories are now running down, effective tariff rates have climbed to around 18% from 3% at the start of the year, and companies are showing less willingness to absorb higher costs.
JPMorgan’s call comes alongside broader market worries over the Aug. 29 expiry of de minimis tariff exceptions for imports under $800, a change that could push up prices for retail goods in particular.
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