The ostensible reason for the two to meet is to discuss an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine. After Trump’s change in tone on the war following his most recent direct meeting with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, Putin needs face time with Trump to bring him around to backing Moscow again.
Russia’s ambitions go much further than Ukraine. In December 2021, their extent was laid out in the so-called draft treaties presented to Nato and the United States, containing a wishlist that amounted to surrendering Europe to Russia.
Trump’s summit with Putin in Alaska is already a victory for the Kremlin (Photo: Brendan Smialowski / AFP)
While the purpose of Nato for Europe was once summarised as keeping the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down, the “treaties” and long-standing Russian proposals for a “new European security architecture” amount to getting the Russians in, the Americans out, and the Germans irrelevant.
The summit represents just the most recent in a long string of false promises by Trump to take steps to compel Russia to end its war. There was no surprise at all that Trump’s most recent “deadline” for Russian action passed with none of the threatened sanctions being imposed on Moscow.
Nato Secretary General, Mark Rutte, holds a press conference with US Senators chairing the Senate Nato Observer Group in July. Rutte’s comments suggest he is bracing for Russian demands targeting the alliance (Photo: Mandel Ngan / AFP)
Even so, the White House’s determination to reward Russia for its aggression still causes dismay. Just a few days ago, there was still optimism that sanctions might be imposed on Moscow; now, the talk is once again only of what the US might try to force Ukraine to give Russia.
Russian state media have once again reacted with glee to a Trump initiative, and started restating Alaska’s Russian history in much the same terms as it lays claim to other parts of the former Russian Empire including Ukraine. Trump probably won’t give away Alaska, but if the consistent practice of his current administration is any guide, he might well seek to exploit interest in it for his own personal gain.
Putin welcomes US President Donald Trump’s inexperienced envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow last week. Reports suggests that Witkoff wildly misinterpreted Putin’s demands on Ukraine (Photo: Gavriil Grigorov/ Sputnik via Reuters)
Even if the impact of the summit were limited to Ukraine, it would spell bad news for the security of the rest of Europe. There’s a reason why for the first three years of the conflict, an unconditional ceasefire was viewed as one of the worst-case outcomes from the war, freezing the conflict with Russia in control of the occupied territories, and ending the fighting without tackling its underlying cause – Russia’s ambition to eliminate Ukraine as we know it.
Nevertheless this “worst-case outcome” is now the only one in play, thanks to the determined efforts of the new US administration.
And there’s no doubt Russia will demand more than it already has, and that it will only be encouraged by the endorsement of its aggression by US ambassador to Nato Matthew Whitaker, talking about territory that has been “earned on the battlefield”. Other aggressors around the world will also be heartened by this further evidence of the United States giving its approval to staking a territorial claim by invading your neighbour.
square IAN BIRRELL Trump is giving Putin what he wants - now Europe has to make a generation-defining decision
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Nevertheless, any agreement about Ukraine without Ukraine is irrelevant – or at the least, entirely dependent on how much pressure Trump can exert on Kyiv.
With time, slowly increasing support from European partners and the much faster development of its own defence industries, Ukrainian dependence on the United States is slowly lessening – including since the most recent efforts by the US to strongarm Kyiv into accepting Russia’s demands by means of cutting off support.
Keir Giles is a writer and commentator on Russian affairs. He is a senior consulting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House in London and author of Russia’s War on Everybody and Who Will Defend Europe?
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