Diplomats from British embassies around the world sipped gin cocktails last month, swapped gossip and congratulated themselves that any government missteps had come from domestic policy blunders, not international relations.
Top of the in-tray is the Israel-Hamas conflict. Starmer announced last week the UK will join an international coalition of countries in recognising Palestinian statehood if Israel fails to meet certain conditions, including a ceasefire, by next month.
If Netanyahu fails to make sufficient progress, the UK, France and Canada are now more likely to seize an opportunity ahead of a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City to make a declaration on Palestinian statehood.
Starmer is still making up his mind whether to fly to New York. Sandwiched in the calendar between a planned state visit from Donald Trump and the Labour Party conference, the meeting may fall by the wayside. Once regularly attended by prime ministers, Rishi Sunak also did not attend when he was premier, preferring to focus on domestic matters instead.
Even while still Israel’s key ally, Trump is increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu’s scorched earth policy in Gaza. If France and the UK press ahead with recognition of Palestine it will mean that come September four out of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the UK, France, Russia and China – will speak with a single voice. That tees up a possible confrontation when Trump arrives at the UN, as he is currently expected to do. Until then his shifting attitude to Netanyahu is being keenly watched in capitals around the world.
“As UK foreign policy is now inherently reactive and without a guiding principle – it turns out Starmer is quite good at it,” Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe think-tank told The i Paper. “Three big issues dominating British foreign policy are reconciling your relationship with the US, the European Union and China where there are all sorts of potential moments for one set of priorities cutting across the other. To date he has juggled them quite well; whether he will continue to do so is another question.”
After dusting off some domestic engagements – the Budget is not expected to be an easy sell – Starmer will be jetting off again. He’s set to attend a summit of the G20 in Johannesburg in late November, the first G20 summit on the African continent. But whether Trump will attend is by no means certain and the meeting could end up a washout.
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Back in London officials are also pencilling in a potential visit to India for Starmer to see Prime Minister Narendra Modi before the end of the year. While Modi visited the UK briefly last month to sign the most valuable trade deal the UK has struck since leaving the EU, the visit would recognise India as a key strategic partner. The deal, which could increase the UK’s gross domestic product by £4.8bn by 2040, is seen by officials as a blueprint for boosting Britain’s trade links overseas.
The PM will have to balance co-operation with China on key economic issues while maintaining security ties with the US. That’s against a hostile backdrop to pursuing closer ties with the Chinese Communist Party, which stands accused of economic and military aggression, human rights abuses and espionage.
After a whirlwind autumn of diplomacy Starmer’s trip to China will be putting his statesmanship skills to the ultimate test.
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