According to the bank’s estimates, a print around their baseline forecast of +100k jobs would be the market’s “neutral zone,” expected to generate a modest +0.40% rise in the S&P 500.
150k: SPX ±0.25% (limited directional impact)
Goldman’s framework suggests markets may reward a “Goldilocks” jobs number that avoids signalling either recession risk (too low) or renewed inflationary pressure (too high). A stronger-than-expected print north of 150k is seen as ambiguous for equities, likely due to the potential for revived Fed hawkishness.
Separately, Goldman Sachs Credit strategists warn that global corporate credit spreads are at lowest since 2007, advise hedging
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