Covid cases are still much lower than they have been for almost all of the time since the pandemic started.
The data suggests the overall number of Covid cases (from all variants) has risen by about a fifth since mid April, when Stratus accounted for a small fraction of infections. It now accounts for most of them.
So it looks like, rather than sending infections soaring, Stratus is maintaining infection rates – when they would otherwise have come down sharply as the warm weather sends people outdoors, scientists say.
While the Covid death rate this month fell to its lowest level since it started being recorded on March 13, 2020, the latest figures indicate cases could be going up.
This figure is far higher than the infection rate but is seen as the best indicator of infection levels across the UK scientists use during the summer when surveillance of the virus is lower.
“XFG has replaced the other variants. But that is against a backdrop of all the other variants showing a steep decline. So overall infection rates are not that much changed and recently have even declined,” Professor Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia, told The i Paper.
“As to the future, if XFG increases much above 50 per cent and is still increasing then we will probably see it pushing up cases later this month. Probably the hot summer weather has pushed transmission rates down so the impact of XFG was less than if it had appeared at the start of winter,” Professor Hunter added.
Scientists expect that Stratus’ share of cases has continued to shoot up this month and that it now accounts for the vast majority of Covid infections.
“In previous years, we have usually seen infection rates increasing during the autumn and I think it is likely that we will see this again this year especially as spring and summer rates have been quite low,” he said.
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Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, agrees the relatively low levels of Covid this summer “doesn’t mean that we are out of the woods”.
Professor Steve Griffin, of Leeds University, meanwhile, points out that while although we haven’t seen a spike in cases we “have seen a steady increase in the past months, just not a dramatic wave”
“It’s important to remember that this doesn’t mean we’re not seeing infections, just that they’re neither increasing nor decreasing particularly fast. This again makes Covid a different scenario to influenza, RSV, or other seasonal viruses which have now all but disappeared since their winter waves.
“There’s a consistent rate of hospitalisation and deaths due to Covid still, and the reduced vaccine uptake in vulnerable groups remains a concern. And there’s long Covid to consider.”
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