This week's mailbag covers Yankees prospect Spencer Jones, comps for a Mason Miller trade, and trade deadline situations involving the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Dodgers.
Angel asks:
Do you believe the Yankees now view Spencer Jones as untouchable? His trajectory is so similar to Judge's, but I'd sign right now for 75% of Judge.
Jack asks:
Why does it feel like lots of the Yankees prospects don’t pan out in the MLB? Do you believe it’s because they’re overhyped, poor player development, a mix of both, or something completely else?
Sandy asks:
Volpe made another critical error last night. He seems to wilt under pressure in clutch defensive situations even if his dWar is positive at 0.8. Are the Yankees having second thoughts about their long-term shortstop? Should they? His bat has never been up to league average. Thanks!
Charles asks:
What would it take for the Yanks to get Bednar, Keller, and IKF in a package from the Pirates? It seems that if they are going to be contenders they need something like that.
Jones is an interesting and polarizing prospect. His stock seemed to drop in 2024, as he spent the season at Double-A and posted a 127 wRC+ with a whopping 36.8% strikeout rate.
In another 208 PA at the level this year, Jones still struck out 33.7% of the time, but posted a massive 186 wRC+ to earn a Triple-A promotion. That came on June 27th. He has since annihilated Triple-A pitching with a 205 wRC+, which includes 10 home runs in 79 PA. His strikeout rate for the RailRiders is down to 26.6%.
The sample size makes this tricky. Jones tinkers with his swing a lot, but 79 PA isn't enough to say that he's truly cut the strikeouts. If he'd struck out five additional times in Triple-A - one additional time every three games - his K% would be 32.9.
The error bars on Jones are wide, but the odds are currently stacked against him becoming a star. Jones' Double-A sample is still bigger than his Triple-A one. Let's see if we can find some comps who struck out at least 30% of the time at Double-A at age 24 or younger while posting a 130 wRC+ or better.
2014: Joey Gallo 2015: Will Swanner 2016: Yoan Moncada, Dylan Cozens, Nellie Rodriguez 2017: Eric Haase 2019: Colton Shaver, Riley Adams, Vince Fernandez, Drew WardGallo and Moncada at least had a few star-caliber seasons in the Majors between them. Otherwise, these guys did not become stars or even MLB regulars. They also did not cut their strikeout rates and dominate Triple-A pitching, so if Jones keeps that up he'll be charting a new trajectory.
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