Just the third meeting between England and Italy at a major women’s football tournament awaits. Who will progress to the Women’s Euro 2025 final? We preview the clash with our England vs Italy prediction.
England vs Italy Stats: The Key Insights
England enter this Euro 2025 semi-final as heavy favourites, with the Opta supercomputer seeing them progress into the final in 71% of its current 10,000 simulations. This will be England’s sixth consecutive major tournament semi-final in the current decade and the Lionesses’ seventh appearance in a UEFA Women’s Euro semi-final. They have advanced from half of their previous six semi-finals (3), including two of the last three (in 2009 and 2022). Italy have reached their first major tournament semi-final since Euro 1997 where they defeated Spain 2-1. They have progressed from both of their last two semi-final ties (also Euro 1993), having been eliminated from each of their first five at the tournament.After the Opta supercomputer predicted a routine England quarter-final win over Sweden, it’s fair to say that was not the case. From 2-0 up and having the semi-final within sight, to having two penalties to win the shootout, the Swedes will rue the missed opportunity as the Lionesses eventually got over the line in Zurich, winning 3-2 on penalties.
Becoming the first reigning champions to reach a UEFA Women’s Euros semi-final since Germany back in 2013, the data seems to point all in England’s favour ahead of their final-four clash with Italy as well.
In the most five recent occasions that the reigning champions have featured at this stage, they have gone on to reach the final (Germany in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009 and 2013), with Norway the last to be eliminated in 1995 (lost 7-5 on aggregate to Sweden).
Comeback Queens
The strength in depth shines within Sarina Wiegman’s squad in moments of critical urgency, and Thursday’s dramatic events undoubtedly cast a mirror image of Euro 2022, especially the quarter-final against Spain.
Michelle Agyemang’s equaliser in the 81st minute marked England’s third goal from a substitute at this year’s tournament, more than any other team. It echoed the likes of Ella Toone’s impact in the Euro 2022 quarter-final, when she came off the bench to equalise in the 84th minute against Spain and push the match into extra time.
Wiegman’s awareness, tactics, and timing when it comes to substitutions never falters, even when belief starts to fade. From bringing on Toone and Alessia Russo in 2022 to turning to Agyemang, Chloe Kelly and Beth Mead in 2025, this England team proves time and again that it can never be written off.
In a game where England were far from their best, registering four shots on target across the 120 minutes, just two more than their opening 2-1 defeat to France, it was the substitutes who sparked real belief that the game was far from gone.
Kelly’s first touch of the game assisted the vital first goal back for Lucy Bronze in the 79th minute, and her trademark penalty execution relaxed English hearts in the shootout, even if the pendulum still had a few more swings before the end.
Agyemang’s presence, alongside Russo, was crucial in doubling England’s threat in the box. Scoring two goals from such scenarios is testament to the managerial wits of Wiegman.
And then there’s goalkeeper Hannah Hampton. Her performance cannot be overstated. A vital save just before half-time kept the deficit at two; any more, and the game might’ve been out of reach. Then came a fearless penalty shootout performance with a bloodied nose, saving twice to send England into the semis. At just 24, a performance like this is bound to elevate her confidence even further.
Since the start of Women’s Euro 2022, England’s substitutes have scored four result-altering goals (all in knockout games), more than any other nation in this period.
Bronze Brilliance
Yes, we’ve highlighted the impact from the bench, but another spark that lit the comeback wasn’t from a substitute. It was Lucy Bronze.
Wiegman’s tactical switch to a back three following the introduction of Esme Morgan proved decisive. It freed up Bronze to push higher up the pitch, relentlessly attacking Sweden’s right-hand side. Such a shift paid off immediately with Bronze creeping round at the back post to deliver the goal that pulled England back into the tie.
She has now been directly involved in seven goals for England in 2025 (4 goals, 3 assists) – her best tally in a single calendar year. Only Mead and Russo (both 8) have contributed more goals this year for the Lionesses.
Bronze has now either scored (5) or assisted (6) in five of her six major tournaments for England, with the only exception being the 2023 World Cup.
It wasn’t all smooth sailing nevertheless, and injuries loom a concern ahead of Tuesday evening’s clash. Leah Williamson rolled her ankle, Bronze strapped her own leg during the game, and Lauren James took several heavy knocks.
Question marks will be asked surrounding the trio’s availability, but as we’ve said, England have the depth to cover their tracks.
More History to Be Made?
England have now reached the semi-finals of the UEFA Women’s Euros for the third consecutive edition, a new record for the team. In total, they’ve competed in nine semi-finals across major tournaments (Euros/World Cup), and this will be their first ever such match against Italy.
History slightly favours England here: they’ve won seven of their last 10 matches against Italy (D1 L2), although both of their defeats in this fixture came at the Euros (1987 and 2009). Of the 32 total meetings between these two nations, none have ended goalless, and only two have ended 1-0, so another goal-heavy encounter could be on the cards.
Wiegman is looking to reach her third Women’s Euros final (2017 with Netherlands, 2022 with England), and would become the fourth manager ever to do so, along with Gero Bisanz (1989, 1991, 1995 with Germany), Even Pellerud (1991, 1993, 2013 with Norway) and Christina Theune-Meyer (1997, 2001, 2005 with Germany).
England became the first team ever to win a Women’s Euro knockout tie after trailing by two or more goals, and they’ve now progressed from all four of their quarter-final matches in tournament history, maintaining their flawless record at this stage.
Reaching their first major tournament semi-final since the 1997 Euros is an achievement that stands tall on its own for Italy. But now the question looms large, can they take that next step and book a place in their first major final in nearly three decades?
Their narrow quarter-final victory over Norway saw Cristiana Girelli strike twice, including the decisive goal that sealed a dramatic win. That result has set up a mouth-watering semi-final clash against the reigning European champions.
Italy may also benefit from the small margins that can make a big difference at this stage of the tournament. With an extra day of rest and no need to travel – the semi-final will also be played in Geneva – could those advantages help fuel what would arguably be the biggest upset of these Euros so far?
There are signs Italy are peaking at the right time, despite being the lowest FIFA-ranked team left in the competition (13).
They’ve opened the scoring in all four of their matches in this tournament, an impressive contrast to their previous 18 Euros games, where they managed to go 1-0 up only three times. In fact, only three teams in the competition’s history have scored first in all their group-stage games, the quarter-final and semi-final: Norway in 2013, the Netherlands in 2017, and Germany in 2022, all of whom went on to reach the final.
Girelli Aging Like a Fine Wine
Cristiana Girelli continues to defy time and expectations.
The 35-year-old striker topped the scoring charts in Italy’s Serie A Femminile in the 2024-25 season with 19 goals, finishing as the second-highest scorer across Europe’s top five leagues, behind only Barcelona’s Ewa Pajor (25).
Notably, Girelli also led the way in headed goals (8), underlining her aerial dominance that has translated seamlessly to the international stage. She scored twice with her head in Italy’s win over Norway, showcasing the same physical presence that defined her club season.
At 35 years and 84 days, Girelli made history earlier in the tournament, becoming the oldest player ever to score multiple goals in a single match for a European nation at a major tournament (Euros/World Cup), surpassing Eugénie Le Sommer’s record set in 2023. Her goals against Norway also brought her tally to eight in major international tournaments, second only to Carolina Morace (12) for Italy.
She was also the second-oldest player ever to score in the knockout stages of a Women’s Euros, behind only Elisabetta Vignotto (35y 166d), who scored against Germany in 1989.
Italy have scored just five goals at the tournament so far, and three of them have come from Girelli. If anyone can disrupt England’s backline in the next round, it’s Italy’s timeless forward.
Creative Cantore
Would Girelli be as effective in the air without the precise delivery of Sofia Cantore? Arguably not.
The Italian winger was instrumental in both of Girelli’s goals against Norway, supplying pinpoint crosses that showcased their on-field synergy, a connection evident both at international level and with Juventus.
Cantore enjoyed a career-best season in Serie A Femminile, registering 11 goals and seven assists, the joint-second highest assist tally in the league during the 2024-25 campaign. Her ability to consistently create chances from wide areas makes her an invaluable outlet for Girelli’s aerial prowess.
Their chemistry could prove decisive in unlocking an English defence that has shown moments of vulnerability, particularly against dynamic wide play and intelligent movement in the box.
The most recent meeting between Italy and England came in February 2023 which saw Les Azzurre fall to a 2-1 defeat.
England vs Italy Prediction
England are strong favourites to progress to the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 final, where they will face either Spain or Germany.
The Lionesses made it through to the final in 71.0% of the pre-match Opta supercomputer simulations, with Italy doing so just 29.0% of the time.
Will England reach their sixth Euros final and maintain the quest of retaining their crown?
England vs Italy Squads
England
Hannah Hampton, Lucy Bronze, Niamh Charles, Keira Walsh, Alex Greenwood, Leah Williamson, Lauren James, Georgia Stanway, Beth Mead, Ella Toone, Lauren Hemp, Maya Le Tissier, Anna Moorhouse, Grace Clinton, Esme Morgan, Jess Carter, Michelle Agyemang, Chloe Kelly, Aggie Beever-Jones, Jess Park, Khiara Keating, Lotte Wubben-Moy, Alessia Russo.
Head Coach: Sarina Wiegman
Italy
Laura Giuliani, Elisabetta Oliviero, Lucia Di Guglielmo, Eva Schatzer, Elena Linari, Manuela Giugliano, Sofia Cantore, Emma Severini, Martina Piemonte, Cristiana Girelli, Barbara Bonansea, Rachele Baldi, Julie Piga, Valentina Bergamaschi, Annamaria Serturini, Eleonora Goldoni, Lisa Boattin, Arianna Caruso, Martina Lenzini, Giada Greggi, Michela Cambiaghi, Francesca Durante, Cecilia Salvai.
Head Coach: Andrea Soncin
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