The British & Irish Lions prepare to face Australia in the first Test of the 2025 series. We preview the first match in a massive series with our Australia vs Lions first Test prediction.
While the opening game of this year’s Lions tour – defeat to Argentina in Dublin – may have been a disappointing way to kick off proceedings, Andy Farrell’s side have been dominant since landing Down Under, chalking up five consecutive victories on Australian soil.
It’s just the second time in the professional era that they’ve won their opening five games after arriving in a host country, after 2009 when they won six on the bounce in South Africa.
However, Andy Farrell’s side now face the real challenge: translating that momentum into a first Test victory.
History is on the Lions’ side, having won 17 of 23 Tests against the Wallabies. At a 74% win rate, that’s comfortably their highest against any of the three Southern Hemisphere nations they traditionally tour.
They also have a habit of getting off on the right foot when facing the two-time World Cup winners, winning six and losing just two of their eight series openers against Australia (excluding one-off Tests).
Some fans may remember the last time Australia defeated the Lions in an opening Test – a ruthless victory from Michael Lynagh and co. in 1989 – but none will remember the only other time, given that it came back in their first-ever meeting in 1899.
Australia will be no pushovers, though. While the Wallabies have won just four of their 11 Tests since the start of the 2024 Rugby Championship, two of those came against Lions nations, England and Wales, and they have seen much improvement under Joe Schmidt.
Australia Under Joe Schmidt:
RugbyWallabies Bouncing Ahead of 2025 Lions Tour: McReight, Wright, and the Key Stats Under Schmidt
7 months ago Jonny McCormickWhere the Game Will Be Won
With two breakdown-obsessed head coaches in Farrell and Schmidt, the ruck could play a big part in determining the outcome of this Test.
Since the start of 2024, Australia have led all Tier One nations in ruck success (96.9%), narrowly ahead of Farrell’s Ireland (96.8%). Crucially though, they’ve secured those rucks quickly with 65% of them completed in under three seconds.
That rapid ball speed has been central to Schmidt’s efforts to revitalise the Wallabies’ attack, with the likes of Fraser McReight getting through a mountain of work to help give time and space to their dangerous backs.
The Lions have the likes of Tom Curry, Maro Itoje and Tadhg Beirne as players capable of disrupting the Wallabies’ breakdown and with it, their game plan.
That said, Farrell has opted not to include Tour standout Jac Morgan. The Welshman leads the team in defensive ruck hits (26) and defensive ruck effectiveness rate (23%), winning a tour-high five turnovers in the process. Will it be a mistake leaving him out of the matchday 23?
Either way, whoever can get the upper hand at the breakdown will put themselves in a great position to win the Test.
Players to Watch
This will be the first time since 1896 that the Lions have named a squad against one of the traditional Tri Nations sides without a Welshman in it.
Farrell’s one option of Jac Morgan had carried his form from one red jersey to another, backing up his 2025 Six Nations campaign as one of Wales’ few bright spots to be one of the standouts on this year’s Lions tour. Yet he will have to wait for a potential first Lions Test cap.
Along with his work at the ruck, Morgan has also made the most tackles of any Lion this year (48), with only Curry (4) making more dominant tackles than him (3).
It is Curry who won the battle to start this match though, with Ben Earl’s back-row versatility denying Morgan even a spot on the bench. Curry has quietly gone about his work, boasting the best effectiveness rate at the Lions breakdown of any forward this year, cleaning out or securing possession from 94% of the rucks he’s hit.
Elsewhere in the pack, Dan Sheehan will hope to continue his excellent Test form, particularly when it comes to getting over the try line. He has the best minutes-per-try rate of any Tier One player since the beginning of 2024 (min. 400 minutes), averaging a try every 61 minutes and scoring 10 in total.
It’s an incredible feat for a front row forward, and he’s also been great at the basics too, boasting the best lineout success rate of the three hookers on this year’s tour (96%) as well as making 22/22 tackles – the most of any Lion yet to miss one.
You can compare the stats of all the Lions players on our Stats Hub.
The Wallabies have plenty of dangerous players within their ranks. Earlier this month, we picked five who might have a big impact on this year’s series.
Australia vs Lions First Test Prediction
The British & Irish Lions arrive in Brisbane as favourites and the Opta supercomputer agrees, giving Andy Farrell’s side a 73.4% chance of victory in the opening Test, compared to just 26.1% for the Wallabies. The draw’s at 0.5%.
Based on thousands of simulations, the most likely outcome is a 31-17 win for the Lions, a result that would set them on course for just their second series victory this century.
That said, Schmidt’s Australia are a team in transition with growing cohesion, and with breakdown weapons like Fraser McReight and Carlo Tizzano, as well as strike runners like Tom Wright, they have the tools to hurt the Lions.
However, if the tourists can assert their authority up front and the backline clicks, they should have enough to take an important 1-0 series lead.
Australia vs Lions Lineups
Australia starting XV: 1 James Slipper, 2 Matt Faessler, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 4 Nick Frost, 5 Jeremy Williams, 6 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 7 Fraser McReight, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 9 Jake Gordon, 10 Tom Lynagh, 11 Harry Potter, 12 Len Ikitau, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 14 Max Jorgensen, 15 Tom Wright.
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Tom Robertson, 19 Tom Hooper, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Andrew Kellaway.
Lions starting XV: 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 Joe McCarthy, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 7 Tom Curry, 8 Jack Conan, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 10 Finn Russell, 11 James Lowe, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 13 Huw Jones, 14 Tommy Freeman, 15 Hugo Keenan.
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Andrew Porter, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Ben Earl, 21 Alex Mitchell, 22 Marcus Smith, 23 Bundee Aki.
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Australia vs Lions First Test Prediction and Preview Opta Analyst.
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