Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul:The near firing/unfiring of Powell unsettle markets ...Middle East

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Major US stock indices settle the day higherAtlanta Fed Pres. Bostic: Right now would wait on cutting ratesRubio: We have agreed on specific steps that will bring a serious situation to an endWTI crude oil futures settle at $66.38Fed's beige book: Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early JulyUS Senator Tillis: Firing of Powell on economic decision would undermine US credibilityBOE's Mann: My view is it's going to take some effort to get inflation downTrump’s Fed feud escalates: Powell stays, for nowAxios: Very close to an agreement that would lead to a halt between Israel and SyriaTrump: Fed Chair Powell is too late, but he does not planning on doing anythingCanada to lower tariff order levels from 100% to 50% of 2024 volumes for steel productsBloomberg: Pres Trump likely to fire Feds Chair Powell soonIsrael PM Netanyahu coalition loses its majorityTrump asked GOP leaders if he should fire Powell.NEC Hassett: The US inflation data has been fine. The Fed needs to get back on the curveWeekly crude oil inventories -3.859M versus -0.552M estimateUSTR Greer:US is losing advanced manufacturing along with basic manufacturingGeopolitics: Massive strikes by Israel on Defense Ministry in DamascusAfter PPI, Pantheon sees core PCE at 0.28% for the month of JuneUS industrial production estimate 0.3% versus 0.1% estimateUS PPI final demand MoM 0.0% versus 0.2% estimate. YoY 2.3% vs 2.5% estimateCanada June housing starts 283.7K vs 259K expectedForexLive European FX news wrap: UK CPI comes in hot

Bloomberg confirmed that Trump's was likely to fire chair Powell soon, prompting a selloff in the US dollar, stocks falling, and the treasury curve steepening.

Behind the scenes, reports surfaced that the White House is internally divided on whether the president even has the authority to fire a sitting Fed Chair. The legal ambiguity and political fallout appear to have stalled the plan—for now.

In the end, what started as a potential firing turned into a high-stakes power play. Whether it was a genuine threat or a strategic feint, the episode underscores the growing tension between the Fed and the White House—and raises fresh questions about how far that conflict might go.

On the economic front U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat in June, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% monthly increase and following a 0.3% rise in May. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also came in unchanged, signaling a softening trend in wholesale inflation. While goods prices rose modestly—driven in part by tariffs—the increase was offset by a decline in service-sector prices. On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI slowed to 2.3%, the lowest level since September 2024, while core PPI eased to around 2.6% from 3.0%.

Nevertheless, the estimate for the core PCE from the CPI and the PPI data imply a gain of 0.28% when it is released later this month (according to Pantheon Macro specialize in crunching and modeling the data). That is the good news. The not so good news is that they also anticipate a 0.35% gain in July and that core PCE ends the year at 3.25%, well above the 2% target for the Fed.

Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic is not a Fed official would support Pres. Trump's desire to slash rates. Bostic said he would hold off on cutting rates for now, citing concerns that inflation may be at an inflection point. He noted that the latest CPI data suggests inflation pressures are building, and emphasized the importance of preserving the Fed’s credibility by staying focused on its inflation target. Bostic downplayed media narratives around the Fed, saying he focuses on “things that actually matter” like data and business input. He also remarked that this isn’t a textbook tariff situation, as businesses are adjusting prices in nontraditional ways. The full inflationary impact of tariffs may not be seen until 2026, he added. Ultimately, Bostic stressed that future policy decisions will be guided by incoming data, and reminded that the Fed operates as a committee with a range of views.

Meanwhile, US Middle East envoy Witkopf said Gaza negotiations are going good.

US stocks closed higher. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

Dow industrial average +0.53%S&P index +0.32%NASDAQ index +0.25% Russell 2000+0.99%

Looking at the US yield curve:

2-year yield 3.895%, -6.3 basis points5-year yield 3.997%, -5.6 basis points10 year yield 4.459%, -3.0 basis points30 year yield 4.013%, -0.4 basis points.

Later after the close Netflix announced its earnings. The estimate is for $7.07 on revenues of $11.06 billion. A year ago, EPS was at $4.88 on revenues of $9.56 billion.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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