Forexlive European FX news wrap: Awaiting the US CPI release ...Middle East

US Bessent: I wouldn't put too much emphasis on one inflation numberWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?EU Spokesperson: EU has no intention to retaliate before August 1Kremlin says Putin will respond to Trump comments if necessaryWhat are the interest rates expectations ahead of the US CPI?Germany July ZEW current conditions -59.5 vs -66.0 expectedEurozone May industrial production +1.7% vs +0.9% m/m expectedA round up of the estimates ahead of the US CPI report laterECB's Radev: I value prudence, data-dependence and a strong anti-inflationary biasSpain June final CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y prelimWhat are the main events for today?BofA FMS: Investors most overweight Euro since January 2005Trump says 'disappointed but not done' with PutinHeads up: Earnings season back in focus for equitiesFX option expiries for 15 July 10am New York cutUS CPI report the key highlight in the day aheadJapan trade negotiator says will continue negotiations to seek tariffs agreement with US

It's been a pretty calm session with limited data and newsflow. Everyone's awaiting the US CPI release due in roughly an hour. Given the resilient labour market data, even if we get soft figures, the Fed won't cut in July at this point. The market will likely increase the rate cut bets from September onwards though and weigh on the US dollar, while keeping risk assets supperted.

Higher than expected figures is what could trigger the biggest reaction. While one data point doesn't make a trend, the market will likely assign more risk premium on the inflation view and even if the interest rates pricing might remain the same, we could see some corrections in asset prices with US dollar likely supported, while risk trades undergoing some 'profit taking'.

Looking at the data and news released during the session, the German ZEW improved further as optimism remains high amid easing trade war fears, ECB rate cuts and expansionary fiscal measures. On the US-EU trade front, talks are ongoing and the tones remain positive with nothing to worry about yet.

Finally, we got some comments from the US Treasury Secretary Bessent late in the session where he just highlighted that Trump has no intention to fire Powell and that he wouldn't put too much weight on today's CPI figure because it's the trend that matters more. A hint that the CPI might be higher than expected? Who knows. In my opinion, it's always better to wait for the actual release.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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