The Government has a thicket of missions, goals and priorities – above all of which was meant to come one: growth.
In truth, this is what underlay the crisis that struck the Truss Government, too. Markets don’t hate low taxes or deregulation, but they were frightened that the mammoth energy guarantee, paired with plans to reduce tax revenues being announced before plans to cut spending, amounted to yet more national debt.
The welfare rebellion was a signal to Reeves and Starmer that they can no longer do whatever they like. They are therefore in “lockstep” on a shrinking list of things that they might actually be able to implement.
The Chancellor is effectively being told that she must still balance the books, but can’t reduce spending. If spending can’t go down, and borrowing ought not to go up, then the only other lever available is tax rises.
At this point, Starmer and Reeves’ worry shouldn’t be that they might not win these people’s votes – it’s that they might break them entirely.
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For those in employment, the employers’ national insurance rise is destroying tens of thousands of jobs and eating away at salaries. For those running businesses, the tax hike is just the latest threat to their survival.
Now, the middle and upper working classes must sit and watch Parliament refuse to countenance any change to the welfare system, relying instead on an implicit assumption that the taxpayer can simply cough up yet more instead.
Now, consider what they get in return.
They get on the train, bus or tube and pay their fare, while others barge through unchallenged to travel for free. Once aboard, they have learned to keep their heads down amid videos blaring on mobile phones, or foul-mouthed antisocial behaviour, for fear of the aggression that meets any request for basic civility.
Their dreams of what they might achieve if their efforts pay off continue to be crushed – VAT on independent schools pulls up the ladder for those who hoped to scrape and save just enough, retirement looks as far off as ever, and the lack of housebuilding means their kids are increasingly stuck at home until their thirties.
You might, somehow, think it’s right to squeeze these people more – to compel them to give up more and more for less and less in return. Or you may, like the Chancellor, think it’s simply necessary to balance the books. In either circumstance, how confident can we be that they will be able and willing to bear it?
Their dedication, ethos and sweat have kept the show on the road, carrying an over-indebted, inefficient state, and a low-growth society this far. But that isn’t an invitation to squeeze them yet further. Push them past breaking point, and our problems rapidly get far worse.
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