The USD moves higher as Trump tariff inflation risk increases ...Middle East

The video above outlines the key technical levels in play for the 3 major pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - and explains the bias, the risks and targets for traders today.

Vietnam is surprise but the 20% tariff and 40% on transhipped good. They were pushing for 10-15% range.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, typically more dovish, struck a more cautious tone in recent remarks. He emphasized that the Fed’s mandate is focused on inflation and employment—not on cutting interest rates to ease government debt burdens. Goolsbee pushed back against calls for rate cuts, aligning himself with a "wait and see" approach. He noted that prior to the April 2 tariffs, economic data was strong, but since then, uncertainty has increased and must be resolved. He added there is little evidence so far that tariffs have boosted inflation, though businesses in the Midwest remain wary. He also mentioned the Fed’s facilities need renovation with enhanced security, dismissing any notion of luxury.ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel signaled a cautious stance on further easing, stating that the threshold for another rate cut is “very high.” She downplayed concerns over the euro's strength impacting inflation and noted there is no risk of a sustained inflation undershoot. Schnabel described the eurozone economy as resilient, with balanced risks to the growth outlook, and said current policy is “in a good place.” Her comments reinforce expectations that the ECB will likely hold rates steady through the summer, with markets pricing in a 97% chance of no cut in July and only a 38% chance in September. The ECB has cut the main financing rate from 4.5% to the current 2.15% since June 2024.

US stocks are lower as it reacts negatively to the tariff news

Dow -269 pointsS&P down -34 pointsNasdaq down -105 points

in the US debt market, yields are higher:

2-year yield 3.889%, +2.1 basis points5-year yield 3.960%, +2.9 basis points10 year yield 4.387%, +4.1 basis points30 year yield 4.914%, +1.2 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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