The decline of Red Bull’s performance on track, the loss of key team personnel to rival teams, personal animosity between Horner and Jos Verstappen, the father of four-time world champion Max, the texting scandal involving a female member of staff, in which he was cleared of the wrongdoing he steadfastly denied, and the power reshuffle at Red Bull headquarters in Salzburg following the death of Red Bull magnate Dietrich Mateschitz were headwinds that ultimately speared him.
The new engine regulations for 2026 and the consequent impact on chassis design would have been demanding enough had Red Bull stuck with long-term partner Honda, but the move to develop their own engines in conjunction with Ford is freighted with added difficulties associated with sweeping, root-and-branch change.
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Ultimately the forces of history have been working against Horner since the death of Mateschitz three years ago, which triggered the usual manoeuverings behind the scenes. Oliver Mintzlaff assumed control of F1 along with other sports in Red Bull’s portfolio. This meant a different way of doing business and an opportunity for Red Bull to recentre the F1 power in Salzburg and away from Milton Keynes.
Horner was protected by a winning team, but the moment McLaren took the constructor’s title, the architect of Red Bull’s 20-year F1 project was vulnerable. He survived because Verstappen delivered a fourth consecutive world drivers’ crown. Though Verstappen remains a threat on track it is clear he does not have the car to deliver a fifth world crown.
Horner denied the allegations and was cleared via an independent inquiry and at appeal. However, the rumours of a potential move to Mercedes by Verstappen created a new tension. They were largely generated by Verstappen’s own management team, which fed speculation to the Dutch press.
It was bad enough Red Bull lost star designer Adrian Newey, especially so during a period of dramatic regulatory change, and experienced sporting director Jonathan Wheatley. To lose Verstappen would be an irreparable blow they could not risk. Thus did the rumours play a mischievous role, playing an incremental part in Horner’s exit and granting Verstappen Snr his wish.
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