Maybe the most important question from the recent flash-flood disaster that hit Texas Hill Country — taking more than 100 lives at last count, including those of dozens of children — is whether there was sufficient warning for those in the path of a river that rose 26 feet in a matter of 45 minutes.
Or whether it is even possible to have a warning system in place for a storm this freakish.
It depends, I guess, on your definition of warning.
We’ve been warned about the effects of climate change, including the dangers and frequency of killer storms.
The metaphorical sirens have been blasting nonstop, but too few seem to be listening. And, sadly, there weren’t any actual sirens along the Guadalupe River floodplain, sirens that could have sent out warnings that might have saved lives.
The lack of sirens is just one part of the story for why the warnings weren’t sufficient for this particular tragedy that took place in what is called Texas’ “flash flood alley,” — the most flash-flood-prone area in the country — because, if the warning had been adequate, more people might have been evacuated, particularly those attending the many children’s summer camps along the river.
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SUBSCRIBEAnd the warnings apparently weren’t enough for those running the Texas state government, which for years has rejected money for an improved warning system in Kerr County — the county hardest hit by these floods — or, for that matter, for the Trump administration where climate change is officially considered a hoax and weather research is seen as deep-state conspiracy against the fossil fuel industry.
But the truth is, scientists have warned for years that climate change has increased the dangers and frequency of killer storms. A record number of flash-flood emergencies was recorded by FEMA just last year.
As Houston Chronicle columnist Chris Tomlinson points out, the U.S. Geological Survey got very specific in a 2019 study warning that climate change would cause rain to fall harder and faster on the Guadalupe River.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — which has already seen deep cuts in the wake of the Trump Restoration — predicted that there would be a 20% increase in peak discharges.
What did Washington do in response? It directed its agencies to no longer study climate change because we know how dangerous gathering knowledge can be. Meanwhile, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick ordered NOAA and the National Weather Service to delete studies from their websites, making the acquired knowledge harder to find.
It has also dangerously reduced — or so we’re told by the experts — staffing for the National Weather Service as we head into hurricane season. The San Antonio-based staffer who was in charge of coordinating response with local communities took the recent buyout. He hasn’t been replaced.
And Donald Trump has plans to disband FEMA and “wean” the states from leaning on the federal disaster agency. Or at least he did. On last Friday, after the flood had hit, he told reporters, “Well, FEMA is, uh, something we can talk about later.”
After seeing the tragic footage of the flood-fueled damage and, especially, of the children whose lives have been tragically lost, maybe we should talk about it soonish.Meanwhile, what did Texas, which is regularly hit by hurricanes, tornados and flooding, do in response to climate change reports?
They killed a Senate bill this year that would have formed a statewide council to study and develop emergency response systems.
In Kerr County, the present commissioners recently voted down a million-dollar warning system update, saying voters weren’t ready to spend that kind of money.
As of the July 4th flood, there were not nearly enough water gauges in the river to offer sufficient warning of quickly rising water, according to Rice University professor Phil Bedient, who added:
There were no sirens to warn of a flash flood; the many children’s camps on the river need better and more sophisticated escape plans; and the entire area needs a systems update, funded by the state.
None of this is new. In fact, in 2016, Kerr County Commissioner Jonathan Letz, who retired recently, told the San Antonio Express-News, “We are very flood prone. We know that. We have an obligation to look at what we have, especially since we have a warning system that may or may not work. If it doesn’t work, we need to get rid of it.”
Three times in those years, Kerr County has gone to the state of Texas for assistance in improving the system. Three times, it was turned down. Now Gov. Greg Abbott says they’ll take up the matter of safety measures in the next legislative session.
As you might have expected, in the immediate aftermath of the flood, some Texas officials reflexively blamed the feds and the weather service for insufficient warning, but then remembered whose feds are actually running the weather service these days.
Trump, who has made disastrous cuts to FEMA, to NOAA, to the NWS and to many more initialed federal weather agencies, wanted to blame the problem on Joe Biden — “That was Biden’s setup,” Trump said — but then caught himself, realizing that he was president before Biden when nothing was improved.
So he didn’t blame anyone.
Instead, in a cabinet meeting Tuesday, Trump said the response to the storm that he led, along with Abbott, saved many lives, particularly because of the warm bond he shares with the Texas governor.
Try on this Trump quote and see if you can figure out exactly what he’s saying: “The response has been incredible. And, the fact that we (Abbott and Trump) got along so well, I don’t know. That’s … I don’t even think that’s a political thing. But, we got along so well and it was so unified. I think a lot of lives have been saved. That could have been as bad as it was. And you could almost double or triple. This thing was just, really horrible.”
But those in charge of warning us about weather make up just one part of the massive federal government, which is called upon in emergencies, and non-emergencies, to provide services that only the federal government can at sufficient scale. I mean, we’ll see how well an understaffed FEMA can help in the cleanup and in the rebuilding of sites along the Guadalupe River.More to the point, we should consider this disaster a warning for what will come — and already has come — of the irresponsible cuts made by Elon Musk and his DOGE team and the cataclysmic impact of the passage of Trump’s Big Ugly Contemptible Bill government-wide.Pretending to cut fraud and waste while giving giant tax cuts to the wealthy, Trump has cut health insurance once guaranteed by Medicaid and Obamacare. He has cut funding for federal food assistance for U.S. children, for USAID that will likely see millions of children die, for the National Institutes of Health and for university medical research that will be felt in America and around the world for years.According to researchers — I know, them again — we’ll see major cuts in medical funding for diabetes, cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer’s, you name it. And we shouldn’t forget RFK Jr.’s war on vaccines and the subsequent return of measles.This list of cuts goes on. And on. And on.And all around us, wherever we go, the sound of warning blasts are deafening.I wonder when, or if, we’ll finally hear them?
Mike Littwin has been a columnist for too many years to count. He has covered Dr. J, four presidential inaugurations, six national conventions and countless brain-numbing speeches in the New Hampshire and Iowa snow. Sign up for Mike’s newsletter.
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