We look ahead to this semi-final at the 2025 Club World Cup with our Fluminense vs Chelsea prediction and preview. Can the Brazilians cause another upset in New Jersey?
Fluminense vs Chelsea Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer is backing Chelsea to win this one, giving them an 81.3% chance of progressing to the final. Fluminense are unbeaten in their last 11 matches in all competitions (W8 D3). Cole Palmer is one of 10 English players to score in this edition of the Club World Cup.It’s time for the semi-finals of the FIFA Club World Cup, and this game features the only remaining non-European team in the competition.
Fluminense have done brilliantly to reach the final four, coming through their group before beating Internazionale in the last 16 and Al-Hilal in the quarter-finals.
Matheus Martinelli gave the Brazilian side the lead against their Saudi opponents before Marcos Leonardo equalised early in the second half. However, Hércules came off the bench to score the winner with 20 minutes remaining, sparking scenes of jubilation from Fluminense on the final whistle.
They come up against Chelsea, who defeated Benfica and Palmeiras in the knockout stages to get this far.
The Blues were made to work for it, with future Chelsea player Estêvão equalising after Cole Palmer had given the Premier League side an early lead. An own goal from Agustín Giay decided it with just seven minutes left, though.
The only previous time Fluminense have played English opposition in the Club World Cup was their 4-0 defeat to Manchester City in the 2023 final.
However, they come into this game in excellent form. Their 2-1 win over Al-Hilal in the last eight extended their unbeaten run in all competitions to 11 matches (W8 D3). In fact, Leonardo’s equaliser came in the 51st minute, which was the first goal Fluminense had conceded in the second half of a match since 18 May, ending a run of eight straight second-half shutouts.
That has been in part down to the continued brilliance of Thiago Silva, still performing to a high standard even though he turns 41 in September. The Brazil legend will be aiming to stop his former side on Tuesday at MetLife Stadium.
Jhon Arias will be someone for Chelsea to watch out for. He created five chances against Al-Hilal, his second match with at least five chances created in this year’s competition (six vs Ulsan). He also made three line-breaking passes that broke the defensive line, more than any other player in the game.
Chelsea have had mixed fortunes against Brazilian opponents. This will be their third match against Brazilian teams in this year’s Club World Cup, after a 3-1 loss to Flamengo in the group stage and a 2-1 win over Palmeiras in the quarter-finals.
Enzo Maresca has plenty of quality to call on, but it’s difficult to look past Palmer as the main threat. The England international scored his first goal of the tournament in the quarter-final, becoming the 10th Englishman to score in this edition of the competition.
Chelsea’s Pedro Neto has impressed at this tournament, and is one of only three players with 10+ successful dribbles and 10+ chances created, along with Arias and Man City’s Savinho.
Fluminense vs Chelsea Prediction
Chelsea are heavy favourites to reach the final of the Club World Cup, doing so in 81.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations. Fluminense only did so 18.7% of the time.
The Premier League side won inside 90 minutes in 69.1% of sims, compared to the Brazilians’ 12.8%. The game went to extra-time and potentially penalties in the remaining 18.1%.
Never say never, but the supercomputer is not backing Fluminense to win the whole tournament. The latest simulations see them do so just 2.4% of the time, while Chelsea (34.1%) are now second favourites behind Paris Saint-Germain (38.9%).
Fluminense vs Chelsea Squads
FluminenseFábio, Samuel Xavier, Thiago Silva, Ignácio, Facundo Bernal, Renê, Yeferson Soteldo, Matheus Martinelli, Everaldo, Ganso, Keno, Gabriel Fuentes, Germán Cano, Nonato, Agustín Canobbio, Rubén Lezcano, Joaquín Lavega, Jhon Arias, Juan Pablo Freytes, Guga, Manoel, Marcelo Pitaluga, Riquelme, Thiago Santos, Hércules, Isaque, Lima, Gustavo Ramalho, Wallace Davi, Paulo Baya, Kevin Serna, Vitor Eudes.
Head Coach: Renato Gaúcho
ChelseaRobert Sánchez, Marc Cucurella, Tosin Adarabioyo, Benoît Badiashile, Levi Colwill, Pedro Neto, Enzo Fernández, Liam Delap, Cole Palmer, Noni Madueke, Filip Jörgensen, Dário Essugo, Nicolas Jackson, Andrey Santos, Christopher Nkunku, Mamadou Sarr, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Trevoh Chalobah, Reece James, Moisés Caicedo, Malo Gusto, Aarón Anselmino, Tyrique George, Josh Acheampong, Marc Guiu, Mike Penders, Gabriel Slonina, Roméo Lavia, João Pedro.
Head Coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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Fluminense vs Chelsea Prediction: 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Semi-Final Preview Opta Analyst.
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