What are the interest rate expectations for the major central banks? ...Middle East

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 53 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 26 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 55 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 30 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 77 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 31 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 9 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

BoJ: 11 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

We've seen very small changes in rates pricing since the last update as traders are now waiting for Trump's letters on tariffs and the US CPI next week.

We have the RBA and RBNZ monetary policy decisions coming up in the next days. The RBA is widely expected to cut by 25 bps, while the RBNZ is expected to keep rates steady.

With Trump's bill done, the only two risk events ahead are the US CPI next week and some tariffs noise ahead of the August 1 deadline.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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