You can take the loftiest and most confident predictions made by experts over the past few years, crumple them up, stuff them in a thimble, toss them into Lake Mendocino and not lose a square ounce of information.
Experts become expert by pontificating on a TV news network or by publishing a study purporting to be a breakthrough in one thing or another, or a government official explaining that inflation over the past year was at one-point-four-percent, but you just rented some eggs for $17.
Anyone who puts a lot of faith in the opinions of experts must have recently stood up, dusted himself off, and walked away from the overturned turnip truck. Most experts wouldn’t know a turnip from a rutabaga, by the way.
Experts are the ones who tell us the Dow-Jones shot up 100 points because storms in Iowa will soon cause corn prices to escalate. Next week the same experts will tell us the Dow-Jones dropped 100 points because storms in Iowa will soon cause an oversupply of corn.
Here in California Governor Brylcreem confidently announced the state had a billion dollar surplus, based on a theory of A) Counting his chickens, B) Checking with his astrologer. California is swamped in debt.
Climate change experts? First they need to figure out what the answer should be, then cook the numbers (or adjust the hockey stick) to get get the right (wrong) conclusions.
No “environmental scientist” has ever made a prediction that came within a mile or a decade of coming true. No worries; the same experts will soon have some bright and shiny predictions next week. Our credulous, if not dishonest, media will peddle them and six New York Times columnists will provide somber opinions that buttress the theory.
Ukiah City officials are happy to explain how their annexation plans will provide this, that, or something else to enhance revenues, streamline services and reduce waste, fraud, abuse and common sense while avoiding duplicating costly innovations and proven improvements, with lots and lots of transparency at no extra cost.
These are the same wily officials who have used proven methods to infuse forward thinking with strategic analyses that has sunk the City of Ukiah into a debt hole of $216 million.
Probably the worst expert opinions come from universities, which is also where the greatest number of expert opinions originate. Major colleges and universities have long been trading on their reputations for providing reliable, honest research in pursuit of truth and scientific advancement. These goals and methods have been abandoned in favor of research undertaken to arrive at a desired goal.
This deviation from historic scientific methodology results in fabulous new reports of miraculous discoveries that no other researcher(s) are able to duplicate.
Why not? Because the results are bogus, designed in advance to produce a desired outcome. Perverted science, at best.
Last week I was served an obvious platter of nonsense asking “Does AI Makes Us Stupid?” with a followup answer in the affirmative. The authors of the study, from MIT, know this is true because they tested a few people by seeing if they could best remember contents from their own written essays, or remember essays created by Artificial Intelligence.
And, armed with the desired results, I guess we know that AI today and in the future will make us stoopit. The New York Times swallowed the bait and ran a breathless story.
To recap: A few researchers dream up a dubious tool to measure results of a monumental new technology (Artificial Intelligence) via a clumsy test, the results of which prove the collective world IQ will decrease.
They’re gonna need another turnip truck over at MIT.
Want to know the experts I trust?
1) I absolutely trust Steve Mendoza at Steve’s Service Center to fix my car every time for every problem, guaranteed. I’ve never known an auto mechanic that wasn’t smarter than a lecture hall full of professors, and Steve’s the best of anyone who ever looked under the hood of any car of mine
2) I trust Jeff Trouette to take care of whatever plumbing issue I’m able to create. If you are an intellectual, meaning you A) Read the NYTimes, B) Read the New Yorker and C) Subscribe to KZYX you might think plumbers have IQs in the Dull-Normal range. But Jeff is a nationally known photographer, a baseball coach at Mendo College and has one of the most savvy minds I’ve encountered.
3) I’ll take advice from Dr. Robert Rushton before I’ll take advice from the New England Journal of Medicine or Dr. Fauci. I’ve been listening to Dr. Rushton for 40 years and he hasn’t missed a call yet.
TWK has been hammering away at keyboards for several decades, and Tom Hine, who tells him what to type, has been with him every misstep of the way.
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