The 23-year-old University of Colorado Leeds Business Confidence Index hit its fifth-lowest mark ahead of the third quarter of 2025, and all five components of the index — state economy, national economy, industry sales, industry profits, industry hiring and capital expenditures — are below their third-quarter 2024 levels.
The most-recent data puts business confidence “really squarely in the negative territory,” University of Colorado senior economist Richard Wobbekind said, “… very pessimistic territory.”
While there are signs of resilience in the economy — the stock market and firms’ ongoing appetite for new workers, for example — “there are recession probabilities” for the second half of 2025, Wobbekind said. “There are still probabilistic models out there that the economy could turn to recession.”
Respondents to the CU survey were more pessimistic about the state economy that the national outlook — 66.1% with a negative view of Colorado’s economy compared with 62.4% bearish on the national environment — which has been somewhat unusual over the past couple of decades. Rather than outpacing the nation, as had been the case for years, “we’re sort of in the middle of the pack right now,” Wobbekind said.
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