Look ahead to the first of the quarter-finals at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup with our Fluminense vs Al-Hilal prediction and preview.
Fluminense vs Al-Hilal Stats: The Key Insights
Al-Hilal are the favourites to progress from this tie, making it into the semi-finals in 59.8% of the Opta supercomputer’s latest 10,000 simulations. Fluminense’s win over Internazionale in the round of 16 extended their unbeaten run in all competitions to 10 matches (W7 D3). Al-Hilal are unbeaten in nine straight matches (W6 D3) in all competitions dating back to the beginning of May. Something’s got to give.Prior to the round of 16, many had expected this quarter-final tie to feature two European giants in Manchester City and Internazionale.
But this is football, and those two were knocked out by underdogs Fluminense and Al-Hilal. Now, these sides will battle for a place in the semi-finals of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, where the winner will meet either Chelsea or Palmeiras.
Fluminense caused one of the tournament’s biggest upsets by knocking out Serie A giants Inter with a 2-0 win in the round of 16, with the gap between the two sides in the Opta Power Rankings on the eve of their clash a huge 174 places. Nonetheless, an early goal from Germán Cano and a late one from Hércules bookended a valiant defensive performance to see Renato Gaúcho’s side over the line.
That win extended Fluminense’s unbeaten run in all competitions to 10 matches (W7 D3).
Their opponents in the quarters, Al-Hilal, advanced after a thrilling 4-3 extra-time victory over Manchester City – arguably the game of the tournament so far. In a chaotic clash in Orlando, Al-Hilal eventually sealed the win with Marcos Leonardo’s winning goal in the 112th minute. In doing so, they became the first Asian team to defeat a European side in the Club World Cup.
Just like Fluminense, Al-Hilal are also on a very good run of form. They are unbeaten in nine straight matches (W6 D3) in all competitions dating back to the beginning of May.
The 4-3 win over Manchester City was the third time they have conceded three goals in that span, although they went on to win all three of those matches.
The manner of their victory over City was particularly striking. Al-Hilal generated 3.16 expected goals (xG) in that last-16 clash – the third-highest non-penalty xG conceded by a Pep Guardiola-managed Manchester City side on record. Only Real Madrid’s 3.30 xG in February 2025 was higher over the past five years.
Despite being outshot 30-17, having just 31% possession and recording 42 fewer touches in the box (29-71), Al-Hilal were able to carve out more big chances (7-6) in the match and scored with four of their six shots on target.
These two sides have never met before but this will be the fifth meeting between a Brazilian club and a Saudi Arabian club at the Club World Cup. Al-Hilal were involved in two of the previous four, losing to Flamengo in the 2019 semi-finals, before defeating the same opponent in the last four of the 2022 edition.
Fluminense vs Al-Hilal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Al-Hilal favourites to progress from this tie, winning inside 90 minutes in 50.0% of its latest 10,000 simulations.
Fluminense won in regulation time in 25.6% of the sims, while 24.4% required extra-time – and potentially penalties.
When extra-time and penalties are taken into consideration, Al-Hilal went through 59.8% of the time in total. Fluminense’s probability of reaching the semi-finals is 40.2%.
Fluminense vs Al-Hilal Squads
FluminenseFábio, Samuel Xavier, Thiago Silva, Ignácio, Facundo Bernal, Renê, Yeferson Soteldo, Matheus Martinelli, Everaldo, Ganso, Keno, Gabriel Fuentes, Germán Cano, Nonato, Agustín Canobbio, Rubén Lezcano, Joaquín Lavega, Jhon Arias, Juan Pablo Freytes, Guga, Manoel, Marcelo Pitaluga, Riquelme, Thiago Santos, Hércules, Isaque, Lima, Gustavo Ramalho, Wallace Davi, Paulo Baya, Kevin Serna, Vitor Eudes.
Head Coach: Renato Gaúcho
Al-HilalYassine Bounou, Mohammed Al Yami, Abdulelah Al Ghamdi, Ahmad Aburasyin, Kalidou Koulibaly, Ali Al Bulayhi, Renan Lodi, João Cancelo, Khalifah Al Dawsari, Yasser Al Shahrani, Moteb Al Harbi, Rayan Al Ghamdi, Saleh Barnawi, Saud Haroun, Saad Al Muthary, Ali Lajami, Hassan Al Tambakti, Hamad Al Yami, Mohammed Al Qahtani, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Rúben Neves, Musab Al Juwayr, Salem Al Dawsari, Nasser Al Dawsari, Mohamed Kanno, Malcom, Abdulellah Al-Malki, Abdulaziz Hadhood, Mohammed Abdullah Muhaysh, Kaio César, Khalid Al-Ghannam, Marcos Leonardo, Aleksandar Mitrovic, Abdullah Al Hamddan, Turki Al Ghumayl.
Head Coach: Simone Inzaghi
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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Fluminense vs Al-Hilal Prediction: 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Quarter-Final Preview Opta Analyst.
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