ICYMI - Goldman Sachs brings forward Fed rate cut forecast to September, from December ...Middle East

Goldman Sachs moves its next Fed rate cut from December to September

Adding in a little more now.

The bank sees slightly better-than-even odds of a September cut, citing multiple potential drivers:

muted tariff effects, broader disinflationary trends,signs of labour market weakness, even if temporary.

Goldman now forecasts three 25-basis-point cuts this year — in September, October, and December — and lowers its estimate for the Fed’s terminal rate to 3.00–3.25% (previously 3.50–3.75%).

While not expecting a move in July, they note a rate cut could come earlier if jobs data significantly disappoints. The labour market remains broadly healthy, but Goldman warns that hiring has become more difficult, and risks from seasonal quirks and immigration shifts could weigh on near-term payroll numbers.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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