The head of the British Army has identified the four key countries posing threats to the UK: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, which are increasingly collaborating.
The Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – home to the largest contingent of British troops anywhere outside of the UK – are considered some of the most likely targets. All were under Soviet rule, host Russian minority populations, and have long borders with Russia today.
As the risk of conflict rises, nations continue to build up their military capabilities in a global arms race – which in turn escalates risk.
In September 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin issued an order to increase the size of the Russian military to 1.5 million, offering lucrative bonuses for recruits – estimated to be up to 22 times the average Russian monthly wage.
It has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, with a stockpile estimated at 5,580 warheads, of which 4,380 are operational. They can be launched from air, land and sea.
How that compares to Nato
Nato dramatically outstrips Russia in military capabilities on land, air and sea, according to information gathering by defence intelligence company Janes for The i Paper.
The alliance’s 32 member countries can draw upon around 3.5 million personnel, more than double Russia’s force after its planned expansion.
Nato has three times as many tanks, with 8,688 compared to Russia’s 2,624; 9,490 infantry fighting vehicles compared to 6,353 in Russia and 13,640 artillery pieces compared with Russia’s 5,058. Nato also has more than three times the number of attack helicopters at 1,426 compared to Russia’s 468, and more than five times as many combat aircraft – 5,250 over Russia’s 965. But Russia is roughly equivalent to Nato when it comes to strategic bombers – long-range aircraft used for aerial attacks – with 130 vs 139 of Nato. At sea, Nato is also dominant, with 142 submarines compared to Russia’s 65, and three times as many warships – 302 compared to 108 in Russia. Sir Keir Starmer and Defence Secretary John Healey. The Government has announced the UK will build 12 new nuclear submarines to bolster the military (Photo: Simon Dawson/No 10)Alongside the UK’s four nuclear submarines, the US has a vast nuclear arsenal, which can be launched from land, air and sea.
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Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, UK’s Chief of the Defence Staff, said that Russia would be swiftly defeated by Nato.
“The inescapable fact is that any Russian assault or incursion against Nato would prompt an overwhelming response,” he said.
But the strength of the alliance depends on the level of US participation.
Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to leave Nato or reduce US support, though UK and European defence insiders told The i Paper there has been no change to military engagement with the US since his inauguration.
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♬ original sound – The i Paper – The i Paper“If Nato forces could rapidly degrade and start to roll back the ground-based air defences, then even European air forces with minimal US direct support would likely have rapid successes in achieving air superiority against the Russian VKS [air force],” he said.
Vladimir Putin greets Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi during a meeting at the Kremlin (Photo: Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik/Reuters)
The comparative strength of Nato in a conflict situation also depends on whether it is facing Russia alone, or supported by Russian allies.
Depending on origins of the conflict, Russia could also work with North Korea and Iran – both of which have been supporting its war in Ukraine – or China.
It also has the largest maritime force in the world, operating 234 warships compared to the US navy’s 219 and the UK’s 70.
Xi Jinping’s regime may once again resort to abrasive ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy as it seeks to project strength at home and abroad (Photo: Florence Lo/Reuters)
It could overtake the US’s naval firepower by 2027, measured by the total number of advanced missile launchers it has, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
In 2023, its aircraft numbered at least 600, rising from less than a hundred in 2016. It has continued developing new planes and upgrading old ones over the past year, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) annual Military Balance analysis.
North Korea
North Korea has a disproportionately large military for its population, with an estimated 1.28 million active personnel, according to IISS.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, centre, with Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu, left, and China’s vice chairman of the standing committee of the country’s National People’s Congress, Li Hongzhong, right, at a military parade in Pyongyang in July 2023 (Photo: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)
However, its navy is considered inferior to its rivals, and a new warship capsized during its launch last month.
North Korea is continuing to make advances in its nuclear programme and says it is nuclear capable, but there is no evidence it has successfully integrated a warhead with any of its ballistic missile systems, IISS said.
Iran is estimated to have 600,000 regular troops, while the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has around 200,000.
The state of Iran’s nuclear programme – which it claims is for civilian purposes, but analysts believe is intended to create a weapon – is not clear after it suffered wide-ranging attacks by Israel recently.
How the UK compares
The UK has 180,780 total military personnel across all reserves and regular forces in all three branches, and had the fifth largest defence spending globally last year.
It also had 183 drones, 556 fixed-wing aircraft and 268 helicopters.
But should the UK go to war, it would almost certainly be in co-operation with Nato allies.
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