On the menu: Our obsession with obsessions; Iran strikes scramble domestic politics; MAGA turnout machine; Massie resistance; NoKo beach bingo
As Democrats nervously eye their party’s nominee for New York mayor, they find themselves in the same situation with Zohran Mamdani that Republicans for two decades have faced with their own far-out populists: How to avoid guilt by association in the eyes of swing voters without further alienating already disaffected voters from their own base.
It’s pretty straightforward for people like Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), a canary in the coal mine for swing-district Democrats. Mamdani is exactly the kind of Democrat that Suozzi’s constituents are trying to avoid by living in the ‘burbs. Suozzi won’t be helped by a narrative that his party is falling off a cliff, so he wasted no time in putting space between himself and Mamdani.
But for Democrats with wider constituencies or national ambitions, it’s a tougher question. If you were California Gov. Gavin Newsom, you might be looking at the youthquake in New York with some concern. This is a big win for the democratic socialist insurgency and, by extension, its charismatic leader and likely Newsom’s 2028 presidential rival, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y). On the upside for mainstream Democrats, the more energy there is on the radical left, the more likely it is to spawn Ocasio-Cortez imitators and divide that vote in the 2028 nominating process.
But the best thing for most Democrats would be if Mamdani did not actually become New York’s next mayor. The more the party’s brand is associated with self-described socialist, anti-Zionist, transgender-inclusivity enthusiasts from New York City, the worse it is for Democrats in competitive races. So how likely is it that Mamdani could be a summertime fad and not a boogeyman for every Republican candidate to try to associate with their Democratic opponents next year?
That probably depends most of all on what incumbent Mayor Eric Adams and former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) do next.
In the immediate aftermath of his stunner of a defeat Tuesday, Cuomo was keeping his options open. When he declared for mayor, Cuomo took out an insurance policy for just such an outcome by filing as both an independent and a Democrat, so he’s already on the November ballot. Cuomo was cagey this week, telling the local CBS affiliate that “there are a lot of people who have a lot of concerns” about the direction of the city and that he would “take it one step at a time."
Not taking things slowly is Adams, who has gotten exactly what he wanted out of his former party’s primary. He left the Democratic primary to run as an independent after it became clear that he could not beat Cuomo. Cuomo’s campaign against Adams was shaping up to be one of lesser evils, with Cuomo arguing that while his own scandalized departure from the governorship was no picnic, he’d still be better than Adams. Now, the scandal-soaked Adams is ready to make exactly the same argument against Mamdani.
Two things make Adams’s situation different, though. First, he’s an incumbent and has a mixed bag of a record to run on. His own administration has been derailed by the corruption charges against him and his team, nor has he delivered on promises to crack down on crime from four years ago. And second, Donald Trump.
Trump let Adams off the hook on the corruption case, and Adams has moved into the MAGA World without much hesitation. That’s good for soaking up votes from perennial candidate Curtis Sliwa, who won the typically useless Republican nomination by default, but bad for building a broader coalition in a city where Trump got just 30 percent of the vote last year.
In a sign that Adams may not be thinking about building a new coalition, he kicked off his general election campaign with a chummy chat on Fox News, where he lit into Mamdani as a “snake oil salesman.” Compounding the problem, local Republicans are making an appeal to Trump to deport the Democratic nominee. If this is a race between the Trump-backed candidate and the anti-Trump candidate, Mamdani is a shoo-in.
What Adams would need to do instead is let the Republican minority in the city (Sliwa got 28 percent of the vote in the general election four years ago) migrate naturally to Adams while Adams focuses on winning over the Cuomo Democrats: basically to rebuild as much of his own 2021 coalition as possible. If Adams focuses on addition while super PACs and the right-wing media home in on Mamdani’s weaknesses, Adams could actually win. Looking just at how poorly Mamdani did with voters from New York’s nonwhite majority, especially Black voters, the opportunity is there. But whether Trump will stay out of the race or if Adams has the good sense to shift his focus are both very open questions.
That leaves Wall Street and the Democratic establishment anxiously wondering where to put their bets: on the volatile Trump-adjacent incumbent or on the guy who just took a beating from the nominee they’re trying to stop.
And that points to the other way Mamdani wins in a walk: that Adams and Cuomo are both in the race. Two flawed independent candidates with lots of stubborn pride would be the dream scenario for the 33-year-old outsider.
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NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION
Trump Job Performance
Average Approval: 43.2 %
Average Disapproval: 55.6%
Net Score: -12.4 points
Change from one week ago: ↑ 0.8 point
Change from one month ago: ↓ 4.6 points
[Average includes: Ipsos/Reuters: 41% approve - 57% disapprove; Gallup: 40% approve - 57% disapprove; Echelon Insights: 48% approve - 52% disapprove; Fox: 46% approve - 54% disapprove; Pew: 41% approve - 58% disapprove]
ChatGPT, show me a shortcut
Have you ever used ChatGPT for tasks at work?
Now vs. 2023
Yes: 28%, 8%
No: 56%, 54%
Don’t know ChatGPT: 15%, 38%
[Pew Research survey of 1,551 adults currently working for pay]
ON THE SIDE: THE ORIGINS OF OCD
Harper’s Magazine: “We don’t know where [obsessive-compulsive disorder] comes from, or even what it is. Classified as an anxiety disorder as far back as the DSM-III (1980), it was placed in a category all its own in the DSM-V (2013), to the intense annoyance of some specialists. If we imagine the vast network of mental illnesses that have lately brought America to its knees as a crime syndicate—picture the evidence board at the police station, the pyramid of interconnected mug shots—depression is likely at the top, a Gotti-like kingpin colluding with those below, whose all-pervasive influence cost the United States $326 billion in 2018, roughly half what it spent on the military. See the whole sordid family, the gallery of rogues: PTSD, anxiety, eating disorders, panic; somewhere high up in the chart lies OCD, a capo perhaps, strongly comorbid with depression and conspiring with it to immiserate and kill. Afflicting at least three million U.S. adults, it’s the fifth most common mental disorder reported by Gen Z-ers.”
PRIME CUTS
High risk, high reward for Trump on Iran: Reuters: “Like the casino owner he once was, President Donald Trump has shown an appetite for risk during the first months of his administration. The U.S. airstrike on Iran, however, may represent Trump's largest gamble yet. While the potential for political reward is high and largely dependent on whether Trump can maintain the fragile peace he is trying to forge between Iran and Israel, experts say, there is a downside risk of events spiraling out of Trump’s control while a skeptical American public watches. For now, Trump appears to have won his bet that he could limit U.S. involvement and force the parties to a ceasefire. ... It remains to be seen whether the ceasefire will hold. Early Tuesday, Trump expressed frustration that Israel had launched an attack on Tehran hours after the president had declared a break in the hostilities. If the agreement doesn’t stick — or if Iran ultimately retaliates militarily or economically - Trump risks fragmenting the America First coalition that helped power him back into office by rendering what his movement stands for increasingly nebulous and ill-defined.”
Georgia Dems place their bets on Bottoms: Politico: “Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is launching her campaign to be governor of Georgia in a race that may provide an early sign of whether Democrats have momentum in a pivotal swing state. … She faces a potentially crowded primary with state Senator Jason Esteves and Atlanta-area pastor Olu Brown as declared candidates. Rep. Lucy McBath in March suspended her exploratory bid to help her husband recover from cancer surgery, but left the door open to launching a run for governor in the future. … On the Republican side, state Attorney General Chris Carr launched his bid last year, while MAGA darling Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is thought to be eyeing a run after bowing out of a chance to run for Senate next year.”
Study shows how Trump turnout carried 2024: The New York Times: “One of the most robust studies of the 2024 election shows that President Trump’s return to the White House was powered more heavily by his ability to turn out past supporters than by winning over Democratic voters, even as he built one of the most diverse coalitions in Republican Party history. ... Tony Fabrizio, who was the lead pollster for the Trump campaign, said the new report validated the campaign’s strategic successes. “We talked about getting Blacks and getting Hispanics and low-propensity voters,” Mr. Fabrizio said in an interview. “Everyone looked at us like we had three heads and we were crazy.” “This Pew report basically says, ‘Yeah, we did it,’” he added. ... The result is that roughly 20 percent of the Republican coalition is now nonwhite — nearly twice as much as in 2016. The share of Mr. Trump’s voters who are white dropped to 78 percent in 2024, from 88 percent in 2016. Republican gains among Black voters, while small, were notable given the group’s historical association with the Democratic Party. Mr. Trump expanded his share with Black voters to 15 percent, up from 8 percent in 2020.”
SHORT ORDER
New Kentucky MAGA PAC seeks to oust Massie — Associated Press
South Carolina AG Alan Wilson launches gubernatorial campaign — WISTV
Florida Rep. Kat Cammack office evacuated for death threats after abortion controversy — CBS News
Spanberger gains polling advantage following fundraising boost — Newsweek
Ramaswamy gets Ohio GOP nod as he moves to lock down nomination for ‘26 gubernatorial bid— Politico
Pritzker launches reelection bid for third term as Illinois governor — The Hill
TABLE TALK
Wildcat
“Ask Mike Pence about his last month.” — Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) in response to a social media post by Vice President Vance saying “I wonder if other VPs had as much excitement as I do”
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FOR DESSERT
Supreme leader, supreme tan
BBC: “North Korea is opening a beach resort that its leader Kim Jong Un hopes will boost tourism in the secretive communist regime, state media reports. Wonsan Kalma on the east coast will open to domestic tourists on 1 July, six years after it was due to be completed. It is unclear when it will welcome foreigners. Kim grew up in luxury in Wonsan, where many of the country's elite have private villas, and has been trying to transform the town, which once hosted a missile testing site. State media KCNA claims the resort can accommodate up to 20,000 visitors, occupying a [2.5 mile] stretch of beach, with hotels, restaurants, shopping malls and a water park — none of which can be verified. … KCNA described the Wonsan development as a ‘great, auspicious event of the whole country’ and called it a ‘prelude to the new era’ in tourism.”
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of The Hill Sunday on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Meera Sehgal contributed to this report.
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