We look ahead to this round-of-16 match at the 2025 Club World Cup with our PSG vs Inter Miami prediction and preview. Can Lionel Messi cause an upset against his former club?
PSG vs Inter Miami Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer is backing PSG as huge favourites to win this one, with the European champions winning 80.3% of the pre-match simulations. PSG are facing MLS opponents for only the second time ever, just days after doing so for the first time, in their 2-0 win over Seattle Sounders. Inter Miami won their only previous game against a European side, coming back from a goal down to beat Porto 2-1 on MD 2 of the Club World Cup 2025.Paris Saint-Germain stumbled somewhat into the knockout stage of the Club World Cup but ended up finishing top of Group B, setting up this blockbuster clash with Inter Miami in the round of 16.
It is such a big match largely because of the presence of former PSG man Lionel Messi in the Inter Miami lineup. The Argentine legend was in fine form in the group stage, particularly in the impressive 2-1 win over Porto.
He will hope to show he can still cut it against the best when he comes up against PSG on Sunday, but he faces a stiff challenge.
Champions League winners PSG have conceded only one goal in their last five matches in all competitions (1-0 vs Botofogo), beginning with the Coupe de France final. They have also allowed opponents an expected goals tally of under 1.0 in seven consecutive matches (3.66 in total, at an average of 0.52 per game).
Messi has been part of a team that took PSG apart before, though. The French champions’ joint-heaviest ever defeat in a non-domestic match came in March 2017 (6-1 in the UEFA Champions League), against a Barcelona side that included Inter Miami trio Messi, Luis Suárez and Sergio Busquets. Manager Javier Mascherano also played.
Few expected Inter Miami to beat Porto in the group stage, so they shouldn’t be written off entirely here, even if they are major underdogs.
The MLS side are unbeaten in their last six games across all competitions (W3 D3), scoring at least two goals in five of those. However, they’ve only kept one clean sheet in their last 13 matches, and they will come up against a PSG side who have netted 107 goals in 38 matches in 2025.
Six different PSG players scored their six group stage goals in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Ten different players hit at least one shot on target, led by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s five.
The Georgian has been in unstoppable form at the Club World Cup. He has been directly involved in half of PSG’s goals (3/6 – one goal, two assists), while also leading all players for the French side for chances generated following carries (5 – shots and chances created combined) and fouls won (5).
If Inter are to stand any chance of getting a result here, they will need Messi to be at his very best. He has been directly involved in seven goals in nine career starts against PSG (six goals and one assist), although six of those starts came while playing for Barcelona under current PSG manager Luis Enrique (three goals and one assist).
PSG vs Inter Miami Prediction
PSG are massive favourites to win this one, coming out on top inside 90 minutes in 80.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. Inter Miami won 7.2% of sims and earned a draw which sent the tie to extra-time in the remaining 12.5%.
PSG progress to the quarter-final in 83.2% of simulations, meaning Inter Miami make it through just 16.8% of the time.
At the time of writing, the French and European champions are the supercomputer’s favourites to win the Club World Cup, doing so in 20.8% of simulations.
PSG vs Inter Miami Squads
Paris Saint-GermainGianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Lucas Beraldo, Marquinhos, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Fabián Ruiz, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembele, Désiré Doué, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Gabriel Moscardo, Lucas Hernandez, Senny Mayulu, Nuno Mendes, Bradley Barcola, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Matvey Safonov, Yoram Zague, Noham Kamara, Naoufel El Hannach, Ibrahim Mbaye, Lucas Lavallée, Willian Pacho, Arnau Tenas, João Neves.
Head Coach: Luis Enrique
Inter MiamiDrake Callender, Gonzalo Lujan, Sergio Busquets, Tomás Aviles, Fafà Picault, Telasco Segovia, Luis Suárez, Lionel Messi, Baltasar Rodríguez, David Martínez, Ryan Sailor, Ian Fray, Jordi Alba, Oscar Ustari, Tadeo Allende, Leo Afonso, William Yarbrough, Tyler Hall, Allen Obando, Benjamin Cremaschi, Noah Allen, Rocco Ríos Novo, Maximiliano Falcón, David Ruiz, Yannick Bright, Federico Redondo, Marcelo Weigandt, Israel Boatwright, Santiago Morales.
Head Coach: Javier Mascherano
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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PSG vs Inter Miami Prediction: 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Last-16 Preview Opta Analyst.
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