Key Points:
CAD Progress and Temporary Setback:CAD had made substantial gains until the latest risk-driven USD rally, which Goldman views as a temporary interruption.
Policy Lag Still in Play:The Bank sees lagged effects of prior tightening still working through the economy, reinforcing a cautious approach.
Oil Price Sensitivity:CAD has shown strong performance during oil price shocks, with last Friday’s price surge confirming its status as a commodity-sensitive outperformer.
Goldman Sachs remains constructive on CAD, viewing recent USD/CAD strength as an opportunity to position for further downside. They expect USD/CAD to grind lower over the coming quarters, driven by relatively benign inflation, a conservative BoC easing path, and oil-linked resilience amid geopolitical risks.
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