ANZ warn on Hormuz disruption, oil could rise to US$95 / bbl ...Middle East

JP Morgan take a bit of a big pic view:

cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76% and averaging a 30% rise over time

Trump is tweeting about regime change in Iran

ANZ on the nearer term:

"With the U.S. becoming involved, the risk of Iran retaliating by disrupting the flows of oil from the Middle East has risen significantly," "Prices in the $90–95/bbl range would be the likely outcome."

I passed on info a few minutes ago saying that while closing Hormuz is not going to happen, that doesn't mean there will be no disruption:

There is basically zero chance Iran will be able to close the Strait of Hormuz This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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