It is expected that oil is likely to rise by $3 to $5 per barrel this week when trading resumes, according to analysts.
In the past week, Brent futures have jumped 11 per cent since Israel attacked its nemesis with dramatic moves up and down from one day to the next.
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The price of a Brent crude barrel could gain $3 to $5 per barrel when markets open, SEB bank analyst Ole Hvalbye said in a note.
Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, said: “Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days – but this could set us on a path toward $100 oil, if Iran responds as they have previously threatened to.
The Strait is situated at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and is a pathway for not just Iranian shipments, but those from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
A senior Iranian lawmaker said on 19 June that the country could shut the Strait of Hormuz as a way of hitting back against its enemies, though a second member of parliament said this would only happen if Tehran’s vital interests were endangered.
Ajay Parmar, oil and energy transition analytics director at consultancy ICIS, said it was unlikely Iran would be able to enforce a blockage of the strait for too long.
“Most of Iran’s oil exports to China pass through this strait and Trump is unlikely to tolerate the inevitable subsequent oil price spike for too long – the diplomatic pressure from the world’s two largest economies would also be significant.”
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