The 2025 British & Irish Lions tour kicks off this Friday night, with a dangerous Argentina outfit hoping to cause an upset in Dublin. Dive into the data for the clash with our Lions vs Argentina prediction and preview.
The Lions take to the field for the first time since 2021 on Friday, but as is so often the case, it feels like the tour began months ago. With the discourse surrounding who might make the touring party gradually ramping up throughout the year, each match played by British and Irish players seems to take on greater significance as the season goes on.
It will be an historic evening for the touring side as they are set to play their first match on Irish soil, as Ireland becomes the fourth and final Lions nation to host a game, the composite side having played in the English, Welsh and Scottish capitals previously.
The British & Irish Lions boast a strong record against Argentina and are unbeaten in their previous seven encounters (W6 D1). That solitary draw came in their most recent meeting, in Cardiff in 2005, with a last-gasp Jonny Wilkinson penalty sparing their blushes. That game saw Felipe Contepomi lead out the visitors as Argentina captain. Now, two decades later, he leads his nation from the coaching box.
The Lions rarely get off on the wrong foot at the beginning of a tour. They’ve gone unbeaten in the first fixture of each of their last 13 tours (W12 D1), excluding one-off fixtures, with that 2005 draw against the Pumas the only blemish in that run.
You have to go all the way back to 1971 for their last defeat in an opener, against Queensland. A slow start doesn’t necessarily define a tour, though, with that side going on to lose just once more in their remaining 25 games (W23 D1) and famously becoming the only Lions team to win a series in New Zealand.
Lions head coach Andy Farrell will hope to get off to a quick start on Friday, but he’ll be the last man to panic should the Lions come undone against the Pumas.
While this is the Lions’ first appearance in Ireland, it’s far from unfamiliar territory for Farrell and indeed many of the squad, with 16 players playing their Test rugby at the Aviva Stadium for Ireland, including 12 who often call it home with Leinster.
The Pumas will come with every intention of upsetting the home crowd, but they have a poor record in Dublin. They’ve lost all 11 of their Test matches away to Ireland – including two during Farrell’s tenure – and also suffered defeat there in the 1999 Rugby World Cup quarter-final against France.
Despite that history, the Pumas arrive with clear attacking credentials. They were among the most enterprising Test sides in 2024, averaging more metres per carry (4.2) and metres per game (513) than any other Six Nations or Rugby Championship side last year, as well as topping the charts for 22 entries (10.5 per game).
Players to Watch:
Maro Itoje will no doubt lead by example, bringing his usual nuisance to the breakdown. He won five turnovers during this year’s Six Nations, bringing his career tally to 53 – the joint-most in the men’s Championship, alongside a former Lions skipper, Brian O’Driscoll.
Don’t be surprised to see Itoje go the full 80 minutes either – he’s played the full game in each of his last 35 Tests and only failed to see out the game in just one of his last 69.
Wales flanker Jac Morgan was another standout player during this year’s Six Nations, completing 88 tackles in this year’s Championship. That’s the highest ever total by a Welsh player in a single campaign, surpassing Justin Tipuric’s 84 from 2017.
They’ll come up against a hard-hitting pack, though. In 2024, just five Tier One players averaged over two dominant tackles per 80 minutes. In Juan Martin González (2.3), Pedro Rubiolo (2.2) and Marcos Kremer (2.2), Argentina have three of that five. The latter isn’t in the Pumas squad, but Gonzalez and Rubiolo are set to pack a punch from the first whistle.
Lions prop Pierre Schoeman (2.4) was one of the two remaining players to average more than two dominant tackles per 80 minutes, alongside Scotland teammate Rory Darge (2.3), and the Edinburgh front rower will add some impact off the bench for the men in red on Friday evening.
In the backline, try-machine Tommy Freeman adds finishing flair. The England winger touched down in every round of the 2025 Men’s Six Nations, a feat achieved by only two others before him: Philippe Bernat-Salles (2001) and Louis Bielle-Biarrey (also in 2025).
The Pumas backs are dangerous too, perhaps none more so than Santiago Carreras who either made (19) or assisted (20) a total of 39 line breaks in the Premiership this season, more than any other player.
If the game is hanging in the balance, don’t be surprised to see Tomás Albornoz steal the headlines from the tee. He slotted 21 of his 22 kicks at goal in the URC this season, with his 95% success rate the best of any player (min. 10 attempts).
Lions vs Argentina Prediction
Friday’s encounter is more than just a warm-up. For Farrell’s men, it’s a crucial first step toward building chemistry, testing combinations, and laying down a marker ahead of this year’s Test series.
Argentina represent a genuine threat and they will have real ambitions of being the first team to beat the Lions in a tour opener since 1971.
The Opta supercomputer is expecting the Lions to get off to a flying start, and gives them a 83.3% chance of beating Argentina. Los Pumas have a 15.9% chance of causing an upset. The model predicts Andy Farrell’s men will win 36-19.
Lions vs Argentina Lineups
Lions
15. Marcus Smith, 14. Tommy Freeman, 13. Sione Tuipulotu, 12. Bundee Aki, 11. Duhan van der Merwe, 10. Fin Smith, 9. Alex Mitchell, 1. Ellis Genge, 2. Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3. Finlay Bealham, 4. Maro Itoje, 5. Tadhg Beirne, 6. Tom Curry, 7. Jac Morgan, 8. Ben Earl
Replacements: 16. Ronan Kelleher, 17. Pierre Schoeman, 18. Tadhg Furlong, 19. Scott Cummings, 20. Henry Pollock, 21. Tomos Williams, 22. Elliot Daly, 23. Mack Hansen
Argentina
15. Santiago Carreras, 14. Rodrigo Isgro, 13. Lucio Cinti, 12. Justo Piccardo, 11. Ignacio Mendy, 10. Tomas Albornoz, 9. Gonzalo Garcia, 1. Mayco Vivas, 2. Julian Montoya, 3. Joel Sclavi, 4. Franco Molina, 5. Pedro Rubiolo, 6. Pablo Matera, 7. Juan Martin Gonzalez, 8. Joaquin Oviedo
Replacements: 16. Bautista Bernasconi, 17. Boris Wenger, 18. Francisco Coria, 19. Santiago Grondona, 20. Joaquin Moro, 21. Simon Benitez Cruz, 22. Matias Moroni, 23. Santiago Cordero
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