Iran has already threatened reprisal attacks on British, American and French facilities in the region should any of those countries intervene to defend Israel from Tehran’s counter-strikes.
Yet, even as Tehran struggles to fend off Israel’s campaign to target its nuclear programme and decapitate its military leadership, it retains an array of offensive measures against Western powers, ranging from “lone wolf” terror attacks to missile strikes, to economic warfare to restricting oil supplies.
In such a geo-political tinderbox, Britain is treading carefully. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced at the weekend that assets including RAF Typhoon jets were being moved to the Middle East as a “contingency” against the unravelling security situation in the region. At the same time London is emphasising that it has not as yet intervened in support of Israel and wants to see de-escalation.
Britain has four military installations in the Arabian Gulf alongside its main regional airbase at RAF Akrotiri on Cyprus – all of which would be within range of Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles as well as its drones and cruise missiles.
The UK now has two naval bases within or adjacent to the Arabian Gulf – the UK Naval Support Facility (UKNSF) in Bahrain and a Royal Navy logistics hub at Al Duqm port in Oman, which is large enough to accommodate nuclear submarines and Britain’s two aircraft carriers. The Bahrain base, previously known as HMS Jufair, is home to a detachment of UK minehunter vessels as well as a Royal Navy frigate.
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Alongside these larger-scale deployments, Britain has smaller detachments of troops in Iraq, where they participate in Operation Shader, an international force combating rump elements of the Islamic State, as well as forces in Jordan and in the Red Sea.
But it also puts UK forces in eye of the regional storm generated by Operation Rising Lion – the name given to Israel’s ongoing campaign designed to end Iran’s quest for a nuclear weapon and quite possibly its entire regime.
How well can the UK defend its assets?
A key problem for Britain is the technical difficulties of defending any area of air space against the threat posed by ballistic missiles.
Iran has spent many years developing its own formidable arsenal of ballistic missiles, including its latest weapon – the Haj Qasem missile, named after the assassinated Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani and equipped with a navigable warhead designed to evade anti-missile defences such as Israel’s Arrow system and America’s Patriot batteries.
The result is that Britain can use assets such as RAF Typhoon jets or the ground-based Sky Sabre radar-guided missile system to intercept drones or cruise missiles targeting locations such as RAF Akrotiri. But it is highly likely to find itself reliant on Patriot batteries and similar systems operated by US forces and some allies such as Qatar to counter a ballistic missile attack on Arabian Gulf facilities such as Al Udeid or UKNSF.
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However, the Type 45 programme has been dogged by delays and refits, meaning that the Royal Navy’s full complement of six vessels is not always available. As recently as last December, just two Type 45s were in active service.
Experts have also pointed out that Britain would need to provide or call upon additional support in the event that it was called upon to deploy its four mine-hunting vessels from Bahrain to counter any attempt by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The Rusi briefing pointed out that in order for the UK minehunters to operate, they would need protection from Iranian fast boats or coastal defence missiles.
How likely is an Iranian strike on British targets?
To date, there has been a calculation among Western intelligence services that the Iranian regime recognises its interests – and quite possibly its existence – are significantly reliant on keeping America from entering the conflict.
However, amid increasing noises from Washington that it is at least re-examining its priorities with regard to a willingness to negotiate with Iran, there is concern that Tehran’s ageing leaders will decide a path to confrontation is preferable to the idea of swallowing their pride and seeking an accommodation with Israel and the US over their nuclear ambitions.
He said: “[In this scenario] they go all in – asymmetric warfare, cyber attacks, terrorism, closing the Strait of Hormuz.”
One potential threat comes from Iran’s proven penchant for seeking to cause problems on British soil. Tehran’s intelligence services have previously been implicated in multiple attempts to target dissidents on British soil.
As the Western security source put it: “Even by the standards of the Middle East and Iranian paranoia, the current situation is volatile and liable to unintended consequences. The concern must be that it would not take much – a provocation on the streets of London or Washington – to cause this war to spread beyond Tel Aviv and Tehran.”
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