But Israeli supremacy relies entirely on military force and means a prolonged regional war in which Israel will need the active political and military support of the US. Though Donald Trump and his administration is denying that the US participated directly in the attack, the Iranians and most other countries assume that it would not have taken place without Washington’s agreement.
The Israeli strikes by some 200 aircraft appear to have been highly effective, and were supplemented by the use of commandos on the ground in Iran targeting its ballistic missiles. All Israeli aircraft returned without loss, according to the country’s officials.
‘As many days as it takes’
The Israeli attack early on Friday morning is of a size and with a declared objective – the permanent elimination of Iran’s nuclear programme – far exceeding Israel’s strikes on Iran in April and October last year.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says strikes will continue for “as many days as it takes”, which means that a full-scale regional military conflict is now under way. Israel has won a significant success, but will have difficulty in converting this into an outright victory over Iran.
Iran has sought to avoid a direct military confrontation with Israel, knowing that it is outmatched. But it may now conclude that it has no alternative but to build a nuclear device (despite Netanyahu’s claim that one was in the final stages of development, US intelligence agencies had concluded until recently that the Iranian leadership had yet to decide to build a nuclear bomb).
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Trump has been pushing for a negotiated settlement with Iran through his all-purpose envoy, Steve Witkoff, who was scheduled to meet with the Iranian foreign minister in Oman on Sunday. But the Trump administration is divided on how to deal with Iran: the Make American Great Again (Maga) fundamentalists want to avoid another forever war in the Middle East, while the neoconservatives have been pushing for a military attack on Iran for years.
Impotent
While disbelieving Trump’s claim of non-involvement in the air strikes, Iran may be cautious about targeting US bases and facilities in the region, seeing such retaliation as a trap laid by Netanyahu to drag the USA into open and direct support for Israel’s new position as the regional superpower.
The seriousness of the damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear facilities is uncertain, though Israel says this is significant at Iran’s major nuclear enrichment centre in Natanz. Among the Iranian military leaders killed were Mohammad Bagheri, the commander in chief of the Iranian military, as well as Hossein Salami, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran and its allies have been unable to prevent a string of assassinations of its most senior military personnel since the Gaza war began in October 2023.
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All Trump’s peace initiatives – Gaza, Ukraine and Iran – have now foundered or are going nowhere, becoming demonstrations of US weakness and unreliability rather than of strength.
With its back against the wall, Iran would be able to, as a final resort, close the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf, through which passes a fifth of the world’s crude, though this is unlikely unless Iran’s own oil export facilities are destroyed.
Underground facilities
Destroying or even degrading Iran’s nuclear programme will not be easy. “The Israeli and US government, as well as our respective military and intelligence services, are fully aware that Israeli airstrikes on Iran are not going to successfully destroy the Iranian nuclear programme,” Harrison Mann, a former executive officer in the Pentagon’s Defence Intelligence Agency, told the online newsletter Drop Site News.
He believes this to be Israel’s long-term objective.
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